Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND SEVERE WEATHER.

MANY PARAMETERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PACKAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WEAK FRONT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS STORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS REACH
OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
WITH PART OF THE AREA IN MODERATE RISK.

FOLLOWING THE ETA/MESOETA FOR THE MOST PART AND ALL MODELS HAVE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME TIMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS. ONE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE NEXT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN ON
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FLOODING...BUT AFTER CONSULTING WITH
HYDROLOGIST...FEEL THAT WE HAVE HAD A DAY TO DAY OUT AND THE HIGHEST
QPF IS FORECAST TO OUR NORTH. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

PS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 275 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEADED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 700
PM AND 900 PM. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY AROUND MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS MAY STILL BE PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS IN THE VICINITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BY ABOUT 700 PM OR 800 PM
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND LATER THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
900 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0900 PM    PERRYVILLE                MO   80 MPH WIND GUST
05/06/03   PERRY                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

0857 PM    MILLER CITY               IL   TORNADO
05/06/03   ALEXANDER                      REPORTED BY POLICE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
906 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0857 PM    5NW CAPE GIRARDEAU        MO   TORNADO
05/06/03   CAPE GIRARDEAU                 REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER ROPE TYPE TORNADO
                                          THAT WAS SPOTTED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
907 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0905 PM    TAMMS                     IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   ALEXANDER                      REPORTED BY POLICE

0910 PM    2W TAMMS                  IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   ALEXANDER                      REPORTED BY POLICE THE
                                          EXACT LOCATION WAS 5
                                          MILES NORTH OR OLIVE
                                          BRANCH AND 2 MILES WEST
                                          OF TAMMS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
925 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0923 PM    CYPRESS                   IL   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY EOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
937 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0932 PM    1N MOUNDS CITY            IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   PULASKI                        REPORTED BY PULASKI
                                          COUNTY SHERIFFS OFFICE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
939 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0932 PM    SILVA                     MO   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   WAYNE                          REPORTED BY WAYNE COUNTY
                                          SHERIFFS OFFICE

0936 PM    MURPHYSBORO               IL   FUNNEL CLOUD
05/06/03   JACKSON                        REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTERS...LOCATION WEST
                                          OF MURPHYSBORO AND SOUTH
                                          SOUTWEST OF MURPHYSBORO