Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND SEVERE WEATHER.

MANY PARAMETERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PACKAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WEAK FRONT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS STORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS REACH
OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
WITH PART OF THE AREA IN MODERATE RISK.

FOLLOWING THE ETA/MESOETA FOR THE MOST PART AND ALL MODELS HAVE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME TIMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS. ONE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE NEXT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN ON
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FLOODING...BUT AFTER CONSULTING WITH
HYDROLOGIST...FEEL THAT WE HAVE HAD A DAY TO DAY OUT AND THE HIGHEST
QPF IS FORECAST TO OUR NORTH. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

PS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 275 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEADED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 700
PM AND 900 PM. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY AROUND MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS MAY STILL BE PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS IN THE VICINITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BY ABOUT 700 PM OR 800 PM
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND LATER THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

ILZ089>094-KYZ004-005-007-010-014-015-070445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1046 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE POSSIBLE WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...

AT 1045 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
SEVERAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS. THESE
STORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR GOLCONDA...BOAZ...AND CACHE ILLINOIS.
MOVEMENT OF THIS ACTIVITY WAS EAST-NORTHEAST AT 25 TO 30 MPH.
THROUGH 1130 PM...THESE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND FAR WEST AND
NORTHWEST KENTUCKY. TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
COMMUNITIES FROM NORTH OF CAIRO TO METROPOLIS AND ROSICLARE
ILLINOIS TO STURGIS KENTUCKY ARE AT MOST RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DAMAGE.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT...ESPECIALLY SINCE
TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AT NIGHT. BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER BE OBSERVED...OR A WARNING BE ISSUED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 275 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRESLEY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1047 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1042 PM    3S CYPRESS                IL   TORNADO
05/06/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY EOC...AT PERK
                                          AAND WHITEHILL ROADS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1054 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1048 PM    CAIRO                     IL   WIND DAMAGE
05/06/03   ALEXANDER                      HOUSE DAMAGED...REPORTED
                                          BY ESDA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1056 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1045 PM    HOMBERG                   IL   TORNADO
05/06/03   POPE                           TREES DOWN ROOFS BLOWN
                                          OFF HOMES REPORTED BY
                                          EOC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1118 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1056 PM    CAIRO                     IL   TORNADO
05/06/03   ALEXANDER                      *** 2 INJ ***
                                          NUMEROUS TREES
                                          DOWN...HOUSE BLOWN
                                          OVER...4 PEOPLE TRAPPED
                                          WITH THE 2
                                          INJURIES...SEMI TRUCK
                                          FLIPPED OVER ON I-57 AT
                                          MILE MARKER 1 AT 1058 PM

ILZ090-091-094-KYZ001>003-005>017-020>022-070530-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1132 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY...

AT 1130 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM SHAWNEETOWN TO GOLCONDA AND METROPOLIS
ILLINOIS...TO PADUCAH AND HICKMAN IN WESTERN KENTUCKY. MOVEMENT OF
THIS ACTIVITY WAS EAST AT 30 TO 40 MPH. AS THESE STORMS PROGRESS
ACROSS WESTERN KENTUCKY...THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND. SOME
STORMS MAY ALSO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT...ESPECIALLY SINCE
TORNADOES ARE DIFFICULT TO SEE AT NIGHT. BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK
ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER BE OBSERVED...OR A WARNING BE ISSUED.
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 275 EXPIRES AT MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY. HOWEVER...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY LINGER INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS OVER WESTERN KENTUCKY.

PRESLEY