Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Paducah, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT MON MAY 5 2003

FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE CONVECTIVE CHANCES THROUGHOUT THE
WEEK AND SEVERE WEATHER.

MANY PARAMETERS TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS PACKAGE. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG WEAK FRONT ALONG THE
NORTHERN BOUNDARY OF THE CWA INTO THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS STORMS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MISSOURI AND KANSAS REACH
OUR AREA LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
WITH PART OF THE AREA IN MODERATE RISK.

FOLLOWING THE ETA/MESOETA FOR THE MOST PART AND ALL MODELS HAVE
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON SOME TIMING OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
ATTEMPTED TO TIME THE PRECIPITATION IN THE GRIDS. ONE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT AND THE NEXT LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...LINGERING INTO FRIDAY. LEFT A SLIGHT CHANCE IN ON
SATURDAY.

THERE IS SOME CONCERN ABOUT FLOODING...BUT AFTER CONSULTING WITH
HYDROLOGIST...FEEL THAT WE HAVE HAD A DAY TO DAY OUT AND THE HIGHEST
QPF IS FORECAST TO OUR NORTH. WILL MENTION BOTH SEVERE AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY WENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
GUIDANCE THROUGH THURSDAY.

.PAH...NONE.

PS

ILZ075>078-080>094-INZ081-082-085>088-KYZ001>022-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>112-114-071000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
540 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...TORNADO WATCH 275 IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...
...POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE EARLY TONIGHT
ACROSS THE REGION...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI AS OF LATE AFTERNOON. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE HEADED EAST TO
SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 700
PM AND 900 PM. THERE IS A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THIS ACTIVITY...INCLUDING TORNADOES...HIGH WIND AND LARGE HAIL.
THE ACTIVITY WILL EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN
KENTUCKY AROUND MID EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE QUAD STATE
EARLY WEDNESDAY AND LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AN ORGANIZED LINE OF
STORMS MAY STILL BE PRODUCING SOME DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE FAR
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE QUAD STATE AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATER ON
WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

HOWEVER...THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO LIFT BACK NORTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST KENTUCKY AFTER MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTHEAST MISSOURI.  LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...BUT DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

THERE WILL BE PERIODIC CHANCES OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THURSDAY
THROUGH MONDAY...AS THE AREA REMAINS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND A
MEANDERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY STAYS IN THE VICINITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED BY ABOUT 700 PM OR 800 PM
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND LATER THIS
EVENING OVER SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND WESTERN KENTUCKY.

INZ081-082-085>087-062200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
400 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUD OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN GIBSON COUNTY...

SEVERAL REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS OF A FUNNEL CLOUD HAVE BEEN
RECEIVED...IN THE VICINITY OF FORT BRANCH AND HAUBSTADT. SPOTTERS
INDICATED THAT THE FUNNEL CLOUD HAD LIFTED BACK INTO THE CLOUD...AS
OF 355 PM.

AT 357 PM CDT...OWENSVILLE INDIANA DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED A
THUNDERSTORM IN THAT SAME AREA. THE STORM CONTINUED TO MOVE EAST AT
40 MPH...ALONG HIGHWAY 168 TOWARD MACKEY...AND SHOULD REACH MACKEY
BY 410 PM.

IF YOU LIVE IN SOUTHEAST GIBSON COUNTY...REMAIN ALERT TO RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS. BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD
A WARNING BE ISSUED.

ILZ075>078-080>087-INZ081-082-085>088-MOZ076-086-087-062130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
404 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

TORNADO WATCH 268 FOR SOUTHWEST INDIANA...AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
ILLINOIS AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...EXPIRED AT 400 PM. THERE ARE NO
COUNTIES WITHIN THE PADUCAH FORECAST AREA UNDER A WEATHER WATCH AT
THIS TIME.

ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-
070000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...

AT 550 PM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH A LINE FROM PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS...TO PERRYVILLE...MARBLE
HILL AND GREENVILLE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 730 PM AND 830 PM
THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER BE OBSERVED...OR A WARNING
BE ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 257 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

ILZ075>078-080>086-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-107>112-114-
070000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
550 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHWEST
ILLINOIS...

AT 550 PM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL
MISSOURI MOVING EAST TO SOUTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH A LINE FROM PINCKNEYVILLE ILLINOIS...TO PERRYVILLE...MARBLE
HILL AND GREENVILLE IN SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BETWEEN 730 PM AND 830 PM
THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND BRIEF TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER BE OBSERVED...OR A WARNING
BE ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 275 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.

CORRECTED WATCH NUMBER

ILZ075-076-080>082-084-085-088-089-092-093-MOZ076-086-087-100-
107>111-070200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
725 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS STILL HEADED FOR SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND
SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS...

AT 720 PM...REGIONAL RADARS SHOWS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EAST-
CENTRAL MISSOURI APPROACHING FARMINGTON. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 40 TO
45 MPH. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH A LINE FROM PINCKNEYVILLE
ILLINOIS...TO PERRYVILLE...MARBLE HILL AND GREENVILLE IN SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI BETWEEN 800 PM AND 900 PM THIS EVENING. THESE STORMS HAVE
HAD A HISTORY OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL...HIGH WIND...AND BRIEF
TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS.

PERSONS ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT. BE PREPARED TO
TAKE QUICK ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER BE OBSERVED...OR A WARNING
BE ISSUED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA.

TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 275 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...SOUTHWEST INDIANA AND
WESTERN KENTUCKY.