Severe Thunderstorm Warning 304, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AS OF 1045 AM..DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BLACKWELL SWWD TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OKC METRO..TO WICHITA FALLS.  GOOD EWD PUSH
ON THE DRYLINE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT DURING THE NEXT 12-18
HRS OVR THE UPPER MIDWEST. ELEVATED ECHOES PERSIST ATOP THE DEEP
MOISTURE..BUT AS OF YET NONE HAVE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS SHUD CHANGE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17-20Z.  ANALYSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT AIRMASS WITH UP TO 6000 SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL
BECOME MINIMALLY CAPPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRYLINE SHUD ORIENT ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
STILLWATER..TO JUST EAST OF OKC..TO NEAR WAURIKA BY INITIATION TIME.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50KTS WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS..AND COMBINATION OF LOW LCL HGHTS/0-1 KM SHEAR AOA 25 KTS
AND RICH MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS ANYWHERE STORMS CAN SUSTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVR THE SE ZONES. MESOLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVR NCENT TEX
WILL ALSO ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS AREA.

HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZFP AND GRIDS..AND WILL UPDATE LOCAL HWO TO
UPGRADE SVR RISK ASAP.
 MILLER

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

**************************

415 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

DRY LINE WHICH MIGRATED WWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING IS NOW
BEGINNING TO PUSH EWD AGAIN THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD IN WRN KS. AS UPR TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NEWD TODAY
SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD WITH DRYLINE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CNTRL OK BY
MIDDAY. VERY UNSTABLE AMS WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WITH DEPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM APCHG UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM DVLPMNT BY MID AFTN. ACTIVITY SHUD
MOVE INTO ERN SECS OF THE FA BY EVENING AS DRYLINE/FNT CONTINUES TO
PUNCH EWD. A WELCOME BREAK FROM ACTIVE SEVERE WX PATTERN EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AND SFC RDGE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA.  NEXT S/W APCHG FROM THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
BACK TSTM CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED.

FCSTID =    2
OKC   84  51  74  49 /  20  10   0   0
HBR   83  47  75  50 /   0  10   0  10
SPS   88  53  79  52 /  20  10  10  10
GAG   75  41  72  43 /   0  10   0  10
PNC   83  47  72  47 /  30  10   0   0
DUA   88  57  80  53 /  30  30  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1200 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO
PURCELL... TO WAURIKA... TO HENRIETTA TEXAS.

TIMING...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN PROGRESS ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE
MODERATE RISK AREA AT MIDDAY... AND THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
LAST THROUGH AT LEAST MID EVENING ACROSS THE RISK AREA.

IMPACTS...
ANY SUPERCELL STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS OR LARGER... AND NON
TORNADIC WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 80 MPH.  SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL
DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE GREATEST RISK
OF TORNADOES WILL BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
INCREASING CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRYLINE AND A RAPIDLY WEAKENING CAP
HAVE RESULTED IN RAPID SURFACE BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE MODERATE RISK AREA AT MIDDAY. THE DRYLINE
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST AT 30 MPH THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
CAPE VALUES IN EXCESS OF 4000 AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES OF 50
KNOTS WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW STORMS TO BECOME
SUPERCELLS. THE GREATEST RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WILL BE FROM EAST OF THE OKLAHOMA CITY METRO AREA...
SOUTHWARD INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKALHOMA... WHERE THE
LOWEST CLOUD BASE HEIGHTS AND STRONGEST SHEAR IN THE LOWEST 3OOO
FEET OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL EXIST.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD MOVE EAST OF
THE ATOKA AND DURANT AREAS BETWEEN 9 PM AND MIDNIGHT... WHICH SHOULD
BRING THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TO AN END.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...100 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO IF A SUPERCELL OCCURS...30 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE DAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
TOMORROW.

GRAPHICAL OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN

 MILLER

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LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
141 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0137 PM    4 W HOLDENVILLE           OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   HUGHES                         REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

SBS

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
200 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    LACY                      OK   2.50 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   KINGFISHER                     COUNTY EM

1040 PM    3 SW NICHOLS HILLS        OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   OKLAHOMA                       AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER

1058 PM    4 N JONES                 OK   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/09/03   OKLAHOMA                       AMATEUR RADIO SPOTTER

1110 PM    JONES                     OK   TORNADO
05/09/03   OKLAHOMA                       JONES EM

1220 AM    STROUD                    OK   TORNADO
05/10/03   LINCOLN                        STROUD PD

FM

OKZ031-032-041-042-101930-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
216 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HUGHES...MURRAY...PONTOTOC
AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES.

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED FROM NEAR WETUMKA IN
HUGHES COUNTY...SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH ADA...TO NEAR TURNER FALLS IN
MURRAY COUNTY. THE LINE WAS MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS COULD INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...RESULTING IN
ADDITIONAL WARNINGS FOR YOUR AREA.

JAMES

LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
218 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

TIME (CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0203 PM    2 ENE GRADY               OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   JEFFERSON                      REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

0216 PM    WILSON                    OK   .75 INCH HAIL
05/10/03   CARTER                         REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

SBS