Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Norman, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

AS OF 1045 AM..DRYLINE EXTENDS FROM NEAR BLACKWELL SWWD TO THE
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE OKC METRO..TO WICHITA FALLS.  GOOD EWD PUSH
ON THE DRYLINE TODAY AS SURFACE LOW BOMBS OUT DURING THE NEXT 12-18
HRS OVR THE UPPER MIDWEST. ELEVATED ECHOES PERSIST ATOP THE DEEP
MOISTURE..BUT AS OF YET NONE HAVE ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIS SHUD CHANGE RAPIDLY BETWEEN 17-20Z.  ANALYSIS OF 12Z SOUNDINGS
INDICATES THAT AIRMASS WITH UP TO 6000 SURFACE BASED CAPE WILL
BECOME MINIMALLY CAPPED ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRYLINE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. DRYLINE SHUD ORIENT ALONG A LINE ROUGHLY FROM
STILLWATER..TO JUST EAST OF OKC..TO NEAR WAURIKA BY INITIATION TIME.
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AOA 50KTS WILL BE MORE THAN SUPPORTIVE OF
SUPERCELLS..AND COMBINATION OF LOW LCL HGHTS/0-1 KM SHEAR AOA 25 KTS
AND RICH MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN LEAD TO THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS ANYWHERE STORMS CAN SUSTAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING OVR THE SE ZONES. MESOLOW FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVR NCENT TEX
WILL ALSO ACT TO LOCALLY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR IN THIS AREA.

HAVE ALREADY UPDATED THE ZFP AND GRIDS..AND WILL UPDATE LOCAL HWO TO
UPGRADE SVR RISK ASAP.
 MILLER

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

**************************

415 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

DRY LINE WHICH MIGRATED WWD THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING IS NOW
BEGINNING TO PUSH EWD AGAIN THIS MORNING AS SFC LOW BEGINS TO MOVE
EASTWARD IN WRN KS. AS UPR TROF OVER THE ROCKIES LIFTS NEWD TODAY
SFC LOW WILL MOVE EWD WITH DRYLINE EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO CNTRL OK BY
MIDDAY. VERY UNSTABLE AMS WILL BE IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY EAST OF THE
DRY LINE WITH DEPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE ALONG WITH LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM APCHG UPR TROUGH EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN CAP SUFFICIENTLY FOR TSTM DVLPMNT BY MID AFTN. ACTIVITY SHUD
MOVE INTO ERN SECS OF THE FA BY EVENING AS DRYLINE/FNT CONTINUES TO
PUNCH EWD. A WELCOME BREAK FROM ACTIVE SEVERE WX PATTERN EXPECTED
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS DRIER AIR PUSHES IN AND SFC RDGE SETTLES OVER
THE AREA.  NEXT S/W APCHG FROM THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY WILL BRING
BACK TSTM CHANCES. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
EXTENDED.

FCSTID =    2
OKC   84  51  74  49 /  20  10   0   0
HBR   83  47  75  50 /   0  10   0  10
SPS   88  53  79  52 /  20  10  10  10
GAG   75  41  72  43 /   0  10   0  10
PNC   83  47  72  47 /  30  10   0   0
DUA   88  57  80  53 /  30  30  10  10

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-101700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
656 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK AREA ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

LOCATION...
THE SLIGHT RISK AREA IS SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM STILLWATER...TO
DUNCAN...TO WICHITA FALLS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

IMPACTS...
SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF BASEBALLS. WIND GUSTS TO 75 MPH AND TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT STRUCTURAL DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
STRONGEST STORMS.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
THE DRYLINE WAS LOCATED ACROSS THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
MORNING...WITH A SURFACE LOW CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE
DRYLINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BEGIN TO MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. THE DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA BY
MIDDAY. A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE EAST OF THE
DRY LINE...ALONG WITH FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS...ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
TONIGHT. SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT SUNDAY MAY 11.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...40 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...NEAR 100 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AND THEN AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE DAYS WITH THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE
STORMS WILL BE NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT NOON
TODAY.

GRAPHICAL OUTLOOKS ARE AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/OUN

MAXWELL

OKZ038-101515-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
956 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR COMANCHE COUNTY.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTH OF LAWTON AT 956 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT SEVERE AT THE PRESENT TIME BUT MAY INTENSIFY OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN COMANCHE COUNTY.

PEOPLE IN COMANCHE COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF LAWTON...SHOULD
MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND WATCH FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.

OKZ041-042-046-047-101515-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1001 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR CARTER...JOHNSTON...MURRAY
AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES.

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED NEAR SPRINGER AND JUST NORTH OF
ARDMORE AT 1001 AM CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THESS STORMS ARE NOT SEVERE AT THIS TIME...BUT THEY MAY INTENSIFY IN
THE NEXT HOUR.  BREIF HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING...AND SMALL HAIL MAY
OCCUR WITH THE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN CARTER...JOHNSTON...MURRAY AND PONTOTOC COUNTIES SHOULD
MONITOR THESE STORMS CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND WATCH FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THE STORMS APPROACH.

OKZ031-042-101615-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1054 AM CDT SAT MAY 10 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR PONTOTOC AND SEMINOLE
COUNTIES.

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF ADA AT 1054 AM
CDT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

THIS STORM IS NOT SEVERE AT THE PRESENT TIME...BUT MAY INTENSIFY
SLOWLY.  LIGHTNING IS THE GREATEST THREAT WITH THIS STORM.

PEOPLE IN PONTOTOC AND SEMINOLE COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
ADA...SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. LISTEN FOR WARNINGS AND
WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THIS STORM APPROACHES.