Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
335 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
********************************************************************
AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
335 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH CONTINUES THROUGH 7 PM EDT...
MCS CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS KY AND NORTH-CENTRAL TENNESSEE.
THE CLUSTER OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE INTO AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LIKELY/CAT
COVERAGE...BUT ONLY EXPECT SCATTERED STORMS AT BEST BY 00Z.
WBZ NEAR 9500-10000 FEET AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE
POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  MRX RADAR SHOWING
SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH THESE STORMS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR LARGE HAIL.

SOME TRAINING OF STORMS AND K-INDICES IN THE MID-UPPER 30S WILL
PRODUCE A CHANCE OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. WILL NOT ISSUE
A FLOOD WARNING AT THIS TIME DUE TO ONLY LOCALIZED PROBLEMS.

RECENT RAINS AND ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS WILL ALLOW PATCHY
DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP.

SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AND MAKE ITS HOME.  BEST CHANCE
OF AFTERNOON STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA FRIDAY.  APPROACH OF NEXT SHORT-WAVE WILL INCREASE
THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE STORMS FOR SATURDAY. MORE
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE FOR SATURDAY.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PULL THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRIER CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

FCSTID =   15
CHA   61  83  64  83 /  40  50  50  70
TYS   59  81  61  80 /  50  30  40  70
TRI   54  78  58  75 /  50  20  40  70
OQT   59  80  61  80 /  50  30  40  70

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH

*********************************************************************
LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
925 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

SATELITTE SHOWS A SHORT-WAVE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY.  ONE LOBE OF ENERGY MOVING ACROSS EASTERN KENTUCKY
PRODUCING AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ANOTHER WAVE
IS MOVING ACROSS IL. SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHERN
IL.  MESO-ETA SHOWS A 90-100 KNOT 300 MB JET MOVING ACROSS
THE MID-SECTION OF THE NATION WITH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE LEFT FRONT QUAD.

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS ATMOSPHERE ALREADY MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS
MOST OF KENTUCKY AND NORTHERN SECTIONS OF TENNESSEE. MESO-ETA
SHOWS LIFTED INDICES DROPPING TO -6 TO -7 THIS AFTERNOON WITH
CAPES NEAR 2500 J/KG. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE FAIRLY WEAK...SO
STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...PRESENCE
OF A MID-LEVEL DRYING SUGGEST POTENTIAL OF WET MICRO-BURSTS.

LEVEL OF WBZ WILL BE BETWEEN 9500-10500 FEET...SO POTENTIAL OF
LARGE HAIL ALSO EXISTS TODAY. PLAN ON INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

MAY UP POPS SOME...BUT OVERALL CURRENT FORECASTS LOOKS GOOD.

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

DH

*********************************************************************
EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
325 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER CENTRAL
ILLINOIS AND INDIANA...WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT STRETCHING WEST AND
EAST OF IT NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ARE
ALREADY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPECT THIS
ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE FORECAST AREA TODAY.
THIS COLD FRONT AND AN UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
ALLOWING FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SEVERE TSTORMS WITH DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH MOST OF THE
AREA BY THIS EVENING...AND BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE DEEP
SOUTH ON FRIDAY. WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE...A TEMPORARY BREAK IN
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATER TONIGHT UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHEN INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE RETURN TO PRODUCE A
FEW SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTORMS. THE STATIONARY FRONT
OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS PROGGED TO MOVE NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
SATURDAY...AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS SYSTEM WILL KEEP THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THIS LOW MOVES
INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION ON SUNDAY.

AS FOR TEMPS...NGM AND GFS GUIDANCE NUMBERS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH FRIDAY AND LOOK REASONABLE. WILL TREND TOWARD A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE TWO ON FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:

CHA   77  60  83  63 /  60  40  40  40
TYS   74  59  80  63 /  60  40  30  40
TRI   71  55  78  60 /  60  40  20  40
OQT   74  59  80  63 /  60  40  30  40

DMG

*********************************************************************
EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
900 PM EDT WED MAY 14 2003

NOT ENOUGH OF A TREND TO HANG AN UPDATE ON TONIGHT.  SOUTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE TO PUMP MOISTURE INTO THE REGION AS A WARM WARM MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.  SHOWERS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR TO BE WEAKENING...HOWEVER CANNOT RULE OUT RE-DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT.  CURRENT LIKELY FORECAST FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA MAY BE A LITTLE STRONG...BUT NOT ENOUGH INFORMATION FOR ME TO
CHANGE AT THIS TIME.  TEMPERATURE FORECASTS APPEAR TO BE REASONABLE.
NO CHANGES PLANNED.

NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-
006-008-161000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
534 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST TENNESSEE...SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE (TODAY)...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.  A SURFACE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY.  WITH THE UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE MAIN THREATS WITH ANY STORMS WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

THERE WILL ALSO BE A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY...AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES OVER THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY...AND AGAIN THIS WEEKEND.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MRX.

GH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
351 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0343 PM    SUNBRIGHT                 TN   TORNADO
05/15/03   MORGAN                         REPORT OF A POSSIBLE
                                          TORNADO TOUCHDOWN IN
                                          SUNBRIGHT WITH ONLY TREES
                                          DAMAGED. REPORTED BY
                                          SHERIFFS DISPATCH.

0343 PM    SUNBRIGHT                 TN   1.75 IN HAIL
05/15/03   MORGAN                         GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED IN SUNBRIGHT.
                                          REPORTED BY DISPATCH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
425 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0343 PM    SUNBRIGHT                 TN   TORNADO
05/15/03   MORGAN                         PROBABLE TORNADO
                                          TOUCHDOWN AT JOANN
                                          HENRYS TRAILER PARK WITH
                                          TRAILERS DAMAGED...TREES
                                          DOWN AND SOME INJURIES.
                                          REPORTED BY SHERIFFS
                                          DISPATCH.