Severe Thunderstorm Warning 489, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO SE AR WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR
OUR FIRST SHOT OF SVR WX TDY. THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE MAINLY THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SVR WX THREAT EARLY TDY
WILL BE MAINLY WIND. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY
RAIN IS ANOTHER THREAT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONT TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVER SRN PLAINS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD AND
MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA TNT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FRONT. SVR WX STILL A POSSIBILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO LARGE
HAIL SCENARIO AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W WED AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LWR
MS VLY THU NITE BEFORE MOVING EWD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUN.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

SWC

ARZ008-009-017-018-026>028-035-036-048-049-058-MOZ113-115-MSZ001>017-
020>024-TNZ001>004-019>021-048>055-088>092-191200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
500 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...NORTH
MISSISSIPPI...WEST TENNESSEE AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

.DAY ONE...INCLUDING TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER A SMALL
PORTION OF NORTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...MAINLY FOR TUPELO AND AREAS SOUTH
AND EAST.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE MID-SOUTH. THIS INCLUDES THE REST OF NORTH MISSISSIPPI...WEST
TENNESSEE...EAST ARKANSAS AND THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL.

A LINE OF SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH TODAY. A FEW OF THE EMBEDDED STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTAIN DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS
TO 60 MPH. AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS MORNING.
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IF NUMEROUS STORMS TRACK OVER
THE SAME AREA.

A SECOND LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE MAIN COLD FRONT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FROM NOW THROUGH
THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...INCLUDING WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY. A
FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE STRONG.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES. FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR
WEB SITE AT HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/MEG.

SWC