Severe Thunderstorm Warning 492, NWS Memphis, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
345 AM CST TUE NOV 18 2003

.DISCUSSION...
A SFC TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INTO SE AR WILL MOVE
THROUGH OUR CWA THIS MORNING. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS BOUNDARY FOR
OUR FIRST SHOT OF SVR WX TDY. THE BEST SHEAR WILL BE MAINLY THIS
MORNING WITH MARGINAL INSTABILITY. THE BEST SVR WX THREAT EARLY TDY
WILL BE MAINLY WIND. ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HEAVY
RAIN IS ANOTHER THREAT...BUT AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE 1-2 INCH
RANGE. WILL HOLD OFF ON ISSUING A FLOOD WATCH...BUT WILL CONT TO
MONITOR CLOSELY.

THE MAIN COLD FRONT OVER SRN PLAINS BEGINS TO ACCELERATE EWD AND
MOVES THROUGH OUR CWA TNT. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT AS
A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FRONT. SVR WX STILL A POSSIBILITY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BUT THE THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO LARGE
HAIL SCENARIO AS TEMPS COOL ALOFT FROM THE SHORTWAVE.

A SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE W WED AND WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE LWR
MS VLY THU NITE BEFORE MOVING EWD. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE SUN.

&&

.MEG...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
MS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
TN...NONE.

&&

SWC

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