Severe Thunderstorm Warning 211, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE UPPER PATTERN WITH A BROAD RIDGE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TIP OF ARIZONA ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE A TR0UGH
CONTINUES ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN.  THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN BUT
REMAIN IN PLACE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST.  SATELLITE SHOWS A
CIRCULATION OVER THE 4 CORNERS REGION WITH STORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF
IT IN NM... CO... AND TX PANHANDLE.  CENTER OF RIDGE WILL MOVE
WESTWARD INTO MEXICO BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK ALLOWING THE RETURN OF
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  THIS WOULD PUT THE REGION IN MORE FAVORABLE
FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

MORNING SHOWERS MOVED OUT OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTH
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  BEGINNING TO DEVELOP THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  LATEST SLIGHT RISK NOW
COVERS MOST OF CWA.  MAF 12Z SOUNDING WAS UNSTABLE AS ARE MODEL
SOUNDINGS FOR 00Z... MORE SO IN SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO.  THE
COMBINATION OF GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...
DAYTIME HEATING AND SOMEWHAT UPSLOPE FLOW WILL ALLOW THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND DRIFT EAST.  AS OF 18Z STARTING TO
GET STORMS FIRING OVER THE DAVIS MOUNTAINS.

DO NOT EXPECT DRYLINE TO BE A FACTOR AS MOISTURE SHOULD STAY PACKED
AGAINST MOUNTAINS.  DRYLINE SHOULD BE BETTER DEFINED TOMORROW AND
SUNDAY.  HOWEVER A WEAK BOUNDARY WAS NOTICED THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PART OF AREA.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MORE DIFFICULT TO
FIND THIS AFTERNOON BUT COULD BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTION.

TEMPS WILL INCREASE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... MAV TAKES MAF TO 100
SUNDAY WHICH WOULD BE THE FIRST ONE THIS MONTH.  AGREE WITH PREVIOUS
SHIFT THAT WARMING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID LEVELS WILL SUPPRESS STORM
DEVELOPMENT NEXT WEEK.  INITIAL NUMBERS FOLLOW.

MAF 69/96/71/99/73    2--
CNM 66/97/67/100/69   200
MRF 59/91/61/91/62    300
FST 70/98/72/99/74    2--

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

72

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-210930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1233 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS THE
PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN...AND THE
UPPER TRANS PECOS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE TRANS
PECOS REGION AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN AT MIDDAY WILL WEAKEN
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS THEY CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST. THESE STORMS
WILL NOT BECOME SEVERE.

BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING...A SECOND AREA OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS AND MOVE EAST OVER THE PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN BASIN.
ALTHOUGH A WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER EVENT IS NOT ANTICIPATED...A
SOME STORMS WILL LIKELY EXCEED SEVERE LEVELS. AREAS MOST LIKELY TO
EXPERIENCE A SEVERE STORM LATER TODAY WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
NEW MEXICO PLAINS...THE UPPER TRANS PECOS...AND THE WESTERN PERMIAN
BASIN. ANY THUNDERSTORMS WHICH DEVELOP TODAY WILL PRODUCE DEADLY
LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAINFALL. SEVERE STORMS WILL PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER TODAY/THIS EVENING.

TECHNICAL DISCUSSION...
BRIEF EXPLANATION OF SEVERE MENTION: A WEAK WIND SHIFT/WARM FRONT
HAS PERSISTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND WAS ORIENTED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL BASIN AT MIDDAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES MOISTURE IS
POOLING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WITH TDS IN THE MID 60S NEAR/NORTH OF
FEATURE. ONGOING CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT PROGRESSES
EAST INTO THE BASIN...BUT DEBRIS COULD HELP LIMIT INSOLATION/
INSTABILITY. EXPECT MODEST INSTABILITY (LIS -4 AND CAPE 1200 J/KG)
TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TX/NM BORDER. WITH BROAD UPPER LOW NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS MINOR WAVES SHOULD ROTATE TOWARDS AREA LATER HELPING TO
INCREASE MID LEVEL FLOW AND LIFT FOR STORM INITIATION/
INTENSIFICATION. THEREFORE STORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND FURTHER EAST ALONG BOUNDARY
BY EARLY EVENING. INCREASED SHEAR/INSTABILITY SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST A FEW SEVERE STORMS.

LINDLEY