Severe Thunderstorm Warning 170, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
345 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

ACTIVE WEATHER PERIOD COMING UP TODAY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
FOR TODAY A STRING OF SOUTHERN STREAM DISTURBANCES EMBEDDED
IN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST WILL IMPINGE
ON A DRYLINE. THE DRYLINE SHOULD HOLD MUCH FURTHER WEST TODAY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PERMIAN BASIN AS THE 700 MILLIBAR FLOW BACKS
CONSIDERABLY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. STRONG HEATING
AND VERY HIGH MOISTURE WILL ALLOW A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO
DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE. THE INSTABILITY
COMBINED WITH DECENT SHEAR SHOULD PRODUCE A ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE POPS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE EXTREME
WESTERN LOW ROLLING PLAINS CLOSEST TO THE TRACK OF THE NORTHERN
STREAM DISTURBANCE AND DRYLINE/FRONT INTERSECTION. THIS WILL ALSO
BE THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT.

KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY OF THE EXTENDED AS A NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BRING SEVERAL DISTURBANCES INTO THE AREA WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. EXACT PLACE AND TIME
OF HIGHEST POPS WILL DEPEND ON TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SHORTWAVES.

NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:

MAF  098/068 093/067 091 222
CNM  099/065 094/064 095 -02
MRF  090/057 090/058 089 -12
FST  099/071 095/069 094 222

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

12

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-132000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
430 AM CDT FRI JUN 13 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE PERMIAN BASIN AND LOWER TRANS PECOS REGION OF WEST
TEXAS...ALONG AND EAST OF A LAMESA TO MIDLAND TO FORT STOCKTON TO
LAJITAS LINE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...ALONG
AND EAST OF A CARLSBAD TO LAJITAS LINE. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.