Flash Flood Warning 102, NWS Little Rock, AR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

INTERESTING NIGHT SETTING UP WITH MANY FACTORS COMING TOGETHER FOR A
POTENTIAL HEAVY RAINFALL/DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES...AS SOME AREAS
HAVE RECEIVED OVER 3 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 72 HOURS. WITH
ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...FLOODING WILL BE QUICK TO OCCUR.

WARM FRONT IN CENTRAL ARKANSAS...AND HAS NOT MOVED MUCH TO THE
NORTH. MUCH OF THE AREA STAYED IN THE LOW CLOUDS...WITH ONLY AROUND
A 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RISE. DEW POINTS HAVE RISEN CONSIDERABLY TO
READINGS IN THE MID 60S. COLD FRONT PRESENTLY IN THE PANHANDLES OF
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA...AND WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD TONIGHT. UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND DYNAMICS IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...BUT INSTABILITY
WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR. WITH OVERCAST SKIES OVER MUCH OF THE
STATE...A LARGE WARM UP DID NOT OCCUR. MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE STATE DURING THE MORNING HOURS
TUESDAY...WITH UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY. WENT
WITH CHANCE POPS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS COLD AIR ALOFT
WILL LEAD TO INSTABILITY SHOWERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT FOR THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND. EXTENDED MODELS HAVE NOT BEEN VERY CONSISTENT...SO
DID NOT WANT TO BUY IN TOO HEAVILY.

HRO   53  59  40  60 / 100  50  40   0
LIT   61  66  43  63 / 100  60  30   0
HOT   61  66  43  64 / 100  50  30   0
PBF   63  67  42  64 / 100  70  30   0

.LZK...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ZONES ARZ056>057...ARZ063>065
...ARZ067>069.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-181100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
845 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AS OF MONDAY EVENING...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
WERE BREAKING OUT IN ABOUT THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE...WITH
POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL REPORTED. WHILE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WAS
INCREASING...SEVERE WEATHER WAS NOT OCCURRING.

THE RAINFALL IN ARKANSAS WAS AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM TO THE WEST.
SOME WARMING TOOK PLACE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ON MONDAY...BUT THE
WARMING WAS LIMITED BY CLOUD COVER. THIS CUT DOWN ON INSTABILITY IN
THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH THUNDERSTORMS HAVING DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING.

THERE WILL BE A LARGE AMOUNT OF WIND ENERGY ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT NOT MUCH OF THIS WIND WILL BE
TRANSFERRED TO THE GROUND...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WIND DAMAGE
EXPECTED.

THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THERE COULD STILL BE SOME SEVERE WEATHER
OVERNIGHT...BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED. HOWEVER...A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT IS STILL EXPECTED.

THE MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE AIR IS UNUSUALLY HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. THIS WILL INCREASE THE PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...WITH HEAVY
TO POSSIBLY EXCESSIVE RAIN IN THE FORECAST. IT APPEARS THAT TWO TO
THREE INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN HAS FALLEN RECENTLY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...PROMPTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL MOVE OVER ARKANSAS ON TUESDAY. THE
SYSTEM WILL BRING PROGRESSIVELY COLDER AIR ALOFT. THIS WILL MOVE
OVER WARMER CONDITIONS NEAR THE GROUND...WITH THE ATMOSPHERE
DESTABILIZING. AFTER WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION EXITS TO THE EAST
TUESDAY MORNING...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COULD REDEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON.

IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THE STORMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

THE ENTIRE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH EAST OF ARKANSAS BY WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE FORECAST TO PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY. ANOTHER
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN BY THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY OVERNIGHT...BUT MAY
BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-180500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
910 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

...HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...

PRECIPITATION WAS BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF
ARKANSAS AS OF MONDAY EVENING. AT 9 PM...PRECIPITATION WAS MOSTLY
WEST OF SALEM...CONWAY AND CAMDEN...AND WAS BUILDING TO THE EAST.
PARTS OF NEWTON COUNTY HAD RECEIVED 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN...WITH
AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER...THERE HAD NOT BEEN ANY AS OF 9 PM. WHILE
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZED SOMEWHAT ON MONDAY AS WARM AND MOIST AIR
SURGED NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF COAST...THE DESTABILIZATION WAS
LIMITED BECAUSE OF LOTS OF CLOUDS AND LACK OF SUNSHINE. DUE TO A
LACK OF INSTABILITY...THUNDER HAS HAD DIFFICULTY DEVELOPING.

OVERNIGHT...A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST. A LOT OF
WIND ENERGY ALOFT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...AND IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY BE TRANSFERRED TO THE GROUND IN A FEW
DEVELOPING STORMS. EVEN SO...ANY WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH
ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED.

IN BRIEF...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER. IN FACT...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT TONIGHT IN SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...WITH A NEARLY SATURATED
GROUND THERE DUE TO RECENT RAIN.

PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-180800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1135 PM CST MON NOV 17 2003

...HEAVY RAIN WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER OVERNIGHT...

HEAVY RAIN WAS OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF ARKANSAS AS OF
11 PM MONDAY EVENING. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WAS NOTED FROM
SALEM TO CLINTON...MORRILTON...HOT SPRINGS AND MURFREESBORO. THIS
AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WAS SLIDING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

SINCE 6 PM...1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN AND LOCALLY MORE WAS COMMON IN
WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. A FEW TOTALS INCLUDED 1.86 INCHES AT
RUSSELLVILLE...1.74 INCHES AT MOUNT IDA AND 1.21 INCHES AT MOUNTAIN
HOME.

AS FAR AS SEVERE WEATHER...THERE HAD NOT BEEN ANY AS OF 11 PM. IN
FACT...THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE IN THE WAY OF THUNDER OVERALL.
HOWEVER...THERE IS A LOT OF WIND ENERGY ALOFT. AT LITTLE ROCK...
WINDS WERE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 60 TO 70 MPH JUST A FEW THOUSAND
FEET ABOVE THE GROUND. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OF THIS ENERGY MAY
BE TRANSFERRED TO THE GROUND IN A FEW DEVELOPING STORMS. EVEN
SO...ANY WIND DAMAGE WILL BE LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SEVERE
WEATHER EXPECTED.

IN BRIEF...A HEAVY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT WITH LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER.

PEOPLE ACROSS ARKANSAS ARE ADVISED TO CONTINUE MONITORING THE
WEATHER OVERNIGHT. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS FOR THE
MOST UP TO DATE INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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