Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
408 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

BUSY NIGHT WITH ONGOING WX, SO WILL ISSUE THE CONDENSED AFD TODAY.
OVERALL FORECAST CHANGES ARE MINIMAL...BASICALLY THE AREA REMAINS
IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THIS WEEK AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY
500MB FLOW PERSISTS.

CONVECTION LIKELY ONGOING INTO THE MORNING AS WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES NWD. UPSTREAM SQUALL LINES IMPRESSIVE ON RADAR, SO STG TO SVR
STORM POTENTIAL MAY CONTINUE INTO MORNING HOURS PER SPC DAY 1
OUTLOOK. LOOKS TO BE A BREAK IN THE ACTIVITY LATER THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT GRADIENT WINDS COULD BECOME AN ISSUE AFTER 15Z.
850MB WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH EWD MOVING NOCTURNAL LLJ AXIS MAY MIX
DOWN, LEADING TO GUSTS FROM 30 TO 35 KTS ONCE MIXING COMMENCES, WITH
THE HIGHEST GUST POTENTIAL OVER ERN PARTS OF THE FA.

PER 0Z ETA, ERN EDGE OF DRY SLOT THEN MOVES TO ABOUT I-65 BY AROUND
18Z. EVEN WITH POTENTIAL MID-DAY BKN LOW CLOUDS AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE
UNSTABLE, WITH 3KM CAPES NEARING 150 J/KJ (VERY HIGH) EVEN FROM GFS.
OVERALL THINKING IS THAT CONVECTIVE REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR ALONG
THIS DRY SLOT EDGE AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ENERGY NOW OVER TX
PANHANDLE MOVES NEAR. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR FURTHER
SOUTHWEST OF FA ALONG RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES, MORE INTO THE SPC
MODERATE RISK AREA. IF INSTABILITY IS AS EXTREME AS ETA FCSTS,
INITIAL DEVELOPMENT MAY BE SUPERCELLULAR AS DEEP LAYER 6KM SHEAR
REMAINS SUFFICIENT. THIS SHOULD TRANSITION TO MORE OF A LINEAR/BOW
SYSTEM TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS IT DROPS ESEWD.
FAIRLY HIGH WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...SPC HAS US
IN 35% RISK OF SEVERE WINDS AND HATCHED AREA FOR 2 HAIL.

BOTH ETA/GFS FCST SOME OTHER CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TO DEVELOP ALONG NOSE
OF LATE NIGHT LLJ ACROSS MID-SOUTH, TRANSLATING EWD ACROSS FAR SRN KY
BY 12Z/TUE. WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT POPS IN CHC CATEGORIES FOR NOW,
HIGHEST IN SRN KY, GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES IN THE LATITUDE OF THIS
SYSTEM.

OTHER THING OF SOME NOTE THROUGH 60HRS IS THAT BOTH GFS/ETA FCST
YET ANOTHER NOCTURNAL CONVECTIVE SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE FA. SOME
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE FA, AS RATHER LARGE
BLOB OF QPF INDICATED OVER TN. GFS LOOKS TO BE FORECASTING QPF MAX
TOO FAR NORTH INTO COOL AIR AS PER USUAL. OVERALL WILL ADD CHC POPS
FOR TUE NIGHT ALL AREAS OF THE FA. IF WE KEEP GETTING THESE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS OVER US, WIDER SPREAD FLOODING AND HYDROLOGIC
PROBLEMS MAY OCCUR. THATS A WRAP.

.LMK...NONE.

XXV

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-060945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

...MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY
TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER WEST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY TODAY WITH A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE FIRST ROUND OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH ANOTHER ROUND
FOR LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE
FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS MOVED NORTH OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO,
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET, AND FROM YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED TODAY. ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED FOR
THIS MORNING AND IS ALSO REQUESTED AGAIN FOR THIS EVENING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

PYE

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-051100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
600 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

THE TORNADO WATCH (NUMBER 242) WHICH WAS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM EDT OR
5 AM CDT HAS BEEN CLEARED FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
   JEFFERSON...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...ORANGE...CLARK...DUBOIS...
   CRAWFORD...HARRISON...FLOYD AND PERRY

IN NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
   TRIMBLE...HENRY...OLDHAM...JEFFERSON...SHELBY...MEADE...SPENCER...
   BULLITT...BRECKINRIDGE...HARDIN...NELSON...WASHINGTON AND LARUE

IN EAST CENTRAL KENTUCKY
   HARRISON...SCOTT...NICHOLAS...FRANKLIN...BOURBON...FAYETTE...
   WOODFORD...ANDERSON...CLARK...JESSAMINE...MERCER...MADISON...
   GARRARD AND BOYLE

IN NORTHWEST KENTUCKY
   HANCOCK AND OHIO

IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
   MARION...LINCOLN...GRAYSON...CASEY...TAYLOR...GREEN...HART...
   BUTLER...EDMONSON...ADAIR...WARREN...RUSSELL...METCALFE...
   BARREN...LOGAN...CUMBERLAND...ALLEN...SIMPSON...CLINTON AND MONROE

SMALLCOMB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
644 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 AM    CORYDON                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   HARRISON                       TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.
                                          REPORTED BY DES.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
702 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 AM    CORYDON                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   HARRISON                       TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.
                                          REPORTED BY DES.

0600 AM    JASPER                    IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   DUBOIS                         55 TO 60 MPH WIND GUST.
                                          TREES DOWN AND ROOF DAMAGE.
                                          REPORTED BY DES.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
705 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0654 AM    ENGLISH                   IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   CRAWFORD                       TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.
                                          REPORTED BY COUNTY
                                          DISPATCH.

PKW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
712 AM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 AM    JEFFERSONVILLE            IN   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   CLARK                          TREES DOWN COUNTYWIDE.
                                          REPORTED BY COUNTY
                                          DISPATCH.

PKW