Severe Thunderstorm Warning 105, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

SHORT TERM...
DIFFICULT FCST TO SAY THE LEAST...TRYING TO PIN DOWN EXACT TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF TSTMS NEXT FEW DAYS...ALL IS PREDICATED ON LOCATION
OF EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES INCLUDING OUTFLOWS FROM PREVIOUS STORMS AND
TENUOUS LOCATION OF SYNOPTIC FRONT/QUASI-DRYLINE. THUS...A CHC OF
TSTMS HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN MUCH OF FCST NEXT FEW DAYS WITH HIGHEST
CHCS AND LOCATIONS INDICATED AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE.

IN IMMEDIATE TERM...LOW LVL BOUNDARIES OVR CENTRAL KY AIDING DVLPMT
OF SCT SUPERCELLS THIS AFTN IN AXIS OF LAPS-INDICATED SFC-BASED LI
VALUES -7 TO -9 AND CAPES AOA 3000 J/KG. AS ACTIVITY CONTS TO DVLP
LATE THIS AFTN...ACTIVITY SHLD SLIDE SLOWLY ESEWD AND PERHAPS
ORGANIZE INTO A MORE LINEAR MCS. THUS HAVE PLACED HIGHEST TSTM
THREAT ACRS SRN/SERN THIRD OF FCST AREA. OVER S-CNTRL IN AND N-CNTRL
KY...AIRMASS IS RECOVERING/DESTABILIZING FROM MRNG CNVCTN ALTHO
CELLS HAVING A HARD TIME FORMING SO FAR. THIS MAY BE DUE TO DRY AIR
ALOFT AND WIND SHEAR VENTILATING/MIXING OUT UPDRAFT PREVENTING DEEP
CNVCTN. NEVERTHELESS...VIS IMAGERY STARTING TO SHOW SOME TCU DVLPMT
IN SRN IN...SO AT LEAST A CHC OF TSTMS WARRANTED LATE AFTN AND INTO
EVNG IN THIS AREA AS WELL.

OVERNIGHT...ETA SUGGESTS THAT S/WV MOVING ENEWD OVR SRN PLNS/LWR MS
VLY WL ALLOW MSTR TO BACK NWD ACRS CNTRL KY AND SRN IN. GFS SUGGESTS
ACTIVITY WL BE HELD IN BAY OVR SRN KY ON SWD GIVEN LACK OF BACKING
IN LOW AND MID LVL WIND FIELDS. GFS SCENERIO SEEMS REASONABLE AS H85
AND H70 WINDS EVEN IN ETA DO NOT SHOW ENOUGH BACKING TO WARRANT A
SIGNIFICANT NWD PUSH OVRNGT. THUS WL MAINTAIN HIGHEST CHC IN SRN
KY...WITH A LWR CHC OVR N-CNTRL KY AT THIS TIME. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN
TRENDS OVERNIGHT WL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. IF ADDITIONAL TSTM
ACTIVITY OCRS OVERNIGHT...THEN HEAVY RAIN AND A FLOOD THREAT COULD
ENSUE.

ON TUES...EXPECT AT LEAST DIURNAL CELLS...CONTD RICH LO-LVL MSTR
FIELD WL SUPPORT SCT TSTM DVLPMT ALG REMNANT BNDRIES. ALTHO SHEAR
VALUES WL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY...CONDITIONS STILL FAVORABLE FOR AT
LEAST PULSE SVR STORMS AND PSBLY SUPERCELL GROWTH. THUS...SPC NOW
INDICATES SLGT RISK OVR ALL OF FCST AREA TUES AFTN AND EVNG.

FOR TUES NGT INTO WED MRNG...ALL SHORT TERM MODELS INDICATE A S/WV
OR SERIES OF WEAK S/WVS MOVG NEWD IN PERSISTENT SWLY MID-LVL FLOW.
HARD TO SUBSTANTIATE THIS FEATURE...BUT THIS COULD LEAD TO BETTER
SHWR/TSTM COVERAGE DURING THIS PD.

LONG TERM...
FOR LATE WEEK...GFS SHOWS ANOTHER STG SYSTEM MOVG ACRS CNTRL U.S.
WHICH WL KEEP PERIODIC TSTM THREAT OVR OH VLY THURS AND/OR FRI.

.LMK...NONE.

FUNK

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-060945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1240 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS HOWEVER CONDITIONS ARE ALSO
FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE IN THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY HAS MOVED NORTH
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS WILL ALLOW MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SIGNIFICANT THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THESE
STORMS WITH TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES LIKELY ACROSS
THE OUTLOOK AREA.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND FROM NOAA WEATHER RADIO,
WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET, AND FROM YOUR LOCAL MEDIA SOURCE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. THE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS REQUESTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

JA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
218 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0145 PM    WILLISBURG                KY   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   WASHINGTON

0115 PM    GRAVEL SWITCH             KY   WIND DAMAGE
05/05/03   MARION                         TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN
                                          ALONG HWY 243

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
246 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0220 PM    LANCASTER                 KY   .75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   GARRARD

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
258 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    KIRKSVILLE                KY   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   MADISON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0248 PM    PEYTONTOWN                KY   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   MADISON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
305 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0245 PM    KIRKSVILLE                KY   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   MADISON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0248 PM    PEYTONTOWN                KY   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   MADISON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0250 PM    5 W RICHMOND              KY   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   MADISON                        BASEBALL SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
324 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0320 PM    BENGAL                    KY   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   TAYLOR                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE, KY
333 PM EDT MON MAY 5 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0327 PM    CAMPBELLSVILLE            KY   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/05/03   TAYLOR                         GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

MRC