Severe Thunderstorm Warning 296, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
220 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

.SHORT TERM...

A WARM FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS AND INDIANA THIS
AFTERNOON WITH A VERY MOIST (PW 2.00) TROPICAL AIRMASS OVER THE
COUNTY FORECAST AREA. AT 18Z ONLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAD DEVELOPED
ACROSS THE AREA. WIND FIELDS REMAIN STRONG THIS AFTERNOON WITH 850
WINDS AROUND 40KTS. WE WILL KEEP AN EYE OF DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF GUSTY WINDS.

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT ON DROPPING THE WARM FRONT SLIGHTLY
SOUTH OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND WE WILL GO WITH
LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CFA OVERNIGHT
AND ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TUESDAY. THE WHOLE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROF MOVES INTO THE
REGION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL CROSS KENTUCKY DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
AND ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE FRONT WILL FINALLY EXITS THE REGION THURSDAY AS COOL HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...
BY FRIDAY THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL OFF TO THE EAST ALTHOUGH
LARGE SCALE 500 MB TROUGH STILL TO RESIDE OVER THE EASTERN GRT LAKES
AND OH VLY. WILL HAVE A CLEARING TREND BY EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH
NIL POPS AND LOW CLOUD COVER FOR THE REMAINDER OF EXTDD. TEMPS A
LITTLE COOLER TOO GIVEN LOWER HEIGHTS...ABOUT 5 DEGREES COOLER THAN
NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

.LMK...NONE.

JA

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
337 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA WILL SETTLE INTO
SOUTHERN INDIANA LATER THIS EVENING. A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS
SHOULD DROP INTO SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY THIS
EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH THE MAIN
THREAT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 50 MPH. A FEW TORNADOES ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE...MAINLY NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THE MAIN THREAT AREA FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NORTH OF THE WESTERN KENTUCKY AND
BLUEGRASS PARKWAYS IN NORTH-CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA. FINALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED THREAT OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING PROBLEMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL HELP PROMOTE MORE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING AN END TO THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FOR OUR REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS EVENING.

JB

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-012356-
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
745 PM EDT MON SEP 1 2003

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WHICH WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN CANCELLED
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
   JEFFERSON...SCOTT...WASHINGTON...ORANGE...CLARK...DUBOIS...
   CRAWFORD...HARRISON...FLOYD AND PERRY

THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...HOWEVER SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN WILL CONTINUE FROM TIME TO
TIME TONIGHT.

STUREY