Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
200 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY FROM LAST NIGHT MOVED EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DIVERGENCE ALOFT AT THE NOSE OF A JET
STREAK...A VORT MAX MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA INTO
MISSISSIPPI...AND 74F-75F DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE WERE SUFFICIENT
TO DEVELOP AND MAINTAIN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AREA. HOWEVER RAPID
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS SHOULD LIMIT LOCAL RAINFALL TOTALS. THE
MESOETA SHOWS A VORT MAX SLIDING ACROSS THE CWA OVERNIGHT. THIS
COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS.

GENERALLY SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ALOFT FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO EASTERN
TEXAS OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EXTENDED GFS SHOWS THE TROUGH TO REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS SHOULD HELP PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...KEEPING POPS ABOVE AVERAGE.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
MCB 73/90/73/90 3525     BTR 75/90/75/90 3425
MSY 78/89/78/89 3424     GPT 77/87/77/87 3524

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-131130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
945 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING. SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE
GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM NAPOLEONVILLE LOUISIANA TO
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. HAIL UP TO 1 INCH AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...MAY
BE REQUESTED LATER TODAY.

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
115 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 526 ISSUED AT 910 AM CDT HAS BEEN
CANCELLED FOR SOUTH MISSISSIPPI WEST OF THE PEARL RIVER AND SOUTHEAST
AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...

PIKE     WALTHALL     AMITE     WILKINSON

AND THE FOLLOWING PARISHES IN EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTH LOUISIANA...

ASCENSION         ASSUMPTION      ST. JOHN
EAST BATON ROUGE  EAST FELICIANA  LIVINGSTON
ORLEANS           POINTE COUPEE   ST. BERNARD
ST. HELENA        ST. TAMMANY     TANGIPAHOA
WASHINGTON        WEST BATON ROUGE
WEST FELICIANA    ST. JAMES       IBERVILLE

THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. REDEVELOPMENT OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.