Severe Thunderstorm Warning 107, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS/BATON ROUGE LA
400 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH THROUGH MISSISSIPPI THIS MORNING.
ANOTHER BOUNDARY MOVING EAST THROUGH TEXAS AS WELL. WE SHOULD SEE
SOME SH/TS ACTIVITY BEGIN THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES/PARISHES BEFORE ANY ACTIVITY BEGINS OVER THE WESTERN
PORTION. ALL SH/TS WILL BE WEAK THIS MORNING...THAT IS WHAT SH/TS DO
GET INTO THE AREA. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT AND SOME WEAK LIFT SHOULD HELP
TO GET SOME TS GOING TODAY. PROBLEM WILL BE GETTING TEMPS UP ENOUGH
TO KEEP PRECIP GOING. ATTM WILL KEEP LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH.
CIRRUS FLOW BEGINNING TO ENVELOP AREA AND PRESENT LINE OF STORMS
OVER TX WILL LEAVE ITS SOURCE REGION AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATER THIS
MORNING. IT SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH PROGRESS TO GIVE A SHOT OF RAIN THIS
MORNING THOUGH. THIS TYPE OF TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...BASICALLY ABOVE NORMAL CHANCES OF RAIN...WARM AND MUGGY.

ACTUAL NUMBERS ARE:
    TH      FR      SA      SU      MO      TU      WE   T F S S M T W
MCB 089/073/090/074/089/073/090/075/087/073/088/073/089  6352535454445
BTR 089/075/089/075/088/075/090/075/086/074/086/074/087  6342535444445
MSY 089/078/089/078/088/077/090/077/087/076/086/075/087  5342425444434
GPT 086/077/088/077/086/076/088/075/088/076/086/075/085  5352434443434

.NEW...NONE
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

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LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-080>082-121600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
600 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
EXTREME SOUTHWEST AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SOUTHERN
MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA TODAY. SEVERAL STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH... FREQUENT
LIGHTNING...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
AN HOUR OR LESS...ARE EXPECTED TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD
BRIEFLY REACH SEVERE LIMITS AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN
CONJUNCTION WITH A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL CAUSE
THE INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH
SATURDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS...IS
NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME DUE TO THE EXPECTED ISOLATED NATURE OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

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