Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Jackson, KY

000 
WGUS73 KJKL 171328
FFSJKL
KYC205-171345-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
926 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTHERN ROWAN COUNTY IS 
DISCONTINUED...

THE HEAVY RAIN WHICH PROMPTED THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING ENDED IN THE 
WARNED AREA AROUND 7:45 AM. NO REPORTS OF FLOODING HAVE BEEN 
RECEIVED.

IF YOU OBSERVED FLOODING...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT 
AND ASK THEM TO RELAY THE REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
$$

HAL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
1008 PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

IT APPEARS SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY IS UNDER THE GUN FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINS/FLOODING OVERNIGHT. LATEST WATER VAPOR SAT PIX INDICATE
A HEALTHY SHORTWAVE RIDING NORTHEAST THROUGH SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME INTO SOUTHERN KENTUCKY. 18Z MESOETA GENERATES LIFT ACROSS THE
REGION AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...SO NEEDLESS TO SAY WE WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...ONLY
CHANGES MADE TO THE ZONES WILL BE TO ADD MENTION OF FOG AS MOIST
GROUND/LIGHT WINDS WILL ALLOW FOG TO QUICKLY FROM DURING BREAKS FROM
PCPN. ALSO...CONVECTION OVERNIGHT MAY BE STRONGER THAN IN PREVIOUS
NIGHT/S AS LAPS DATA INDICATES ELEVATED LI/S HAVE BEEN FALLING WITH
TIME...WITH 850MB LI/S NOW BELOW ZERO FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

.JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

HYSELL

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PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW
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230  PM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

WATER VAPOR REVEALS AN AREA OF SEVERAL SMALL PERTURBATIONS OF WEAK
POSITIVE VORTICITY STREAMING FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY ALL THE WAY UP
TO OUR REGION. DEEP MOISTURE AND A WEEK SURFACE BOUNDARY IN THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO PROVE PROBLEMATIC...WILL EXTEND FLOOD WATCH THROUGH
6 AM THIS MORNING BECAUSE OF THIS.   EXPECTING MUCH OF THE SAME ON
TUESDAY AS A WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY NEAR THE WI/IL BORDER
WILL DROP DOWN AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.  WE SHOULD BE ON THE
SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS ENERGY TO PROVIDE ANOTHER GOOD CHANCE FOR
PRECIP...BUT NOT SURE IF PRECIP WILL BE AS HEAVY AS TODAY.  MOS POPS
AND TEMPS LOOK FAIRLY CLOSE TO REASONABLE.  KEPT SUNDAY IN SLIGHT
POP AND INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS FOR MONDAY MOISTURE STARTS TO STREAM
IN FROM THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN.

HEINLEIN
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 1132 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

NOT MUCH CHANGE IN PATTERN FROM YESTERDAY. ONCE AGAIN...MORNING LULL
IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. RADAR HOWEVER SHOWS CELLS STARTING TO FIRE AGAIN
AS WE HEAD TOWARDS AFTERNOON. SEE NO NEED TO MESS MUCH WITH SHORT
TERM PACKAGE. HARD TO BEAT PERSISTENCE WITH CONTINUED STAGNANT
PATTERN. HEAVY RAINERS ONCE AGAIN WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERN. WITH
SATURATED SOILS...FFG VALUES ARE EXTREMELY LOW...SO FLASH FLOODING
AND URBAN / SMALL STREAM HYDRO PROBLEMS ARE A POSSIBILITY.

TEMPS CLIMBING A BIT QUICKER THEN EXPECTED...SO ADJUSTED GRIDS AND
TWEAKED RANGES SLIGHTLY IN ZFP. OTHERWISE ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE
MORNING WORDING. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

.JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

MCLANE
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315 AM EDT MON JUN 16 2003

ANOTHER HYDROLOGICALLY PROBLEMATIC DAY WILL BE IN STORE TO BEGIN THE
WEEK...AS STALLED BOUNDARY COMBINES FORCES WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND
WEAK MID-UPPER LEVEL INFLUENCE TO INITIATE CONVECTION ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE DAY TODAY. WITH 3 HR FFG VALUES BEING LOWER THAN 1.5 IN
THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA...AND STORM MOTION CONTINUING TO BE AT A
WALKING PACE...WILL EXTEND THE FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO THE WEDNESDAY. TUESDAY FEATURES MORE OF THE SAME WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING DECENT S/WV THAT SWINGS THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WILL
TWEAK POPS BACK A BIT ON WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE IS LOST.
BOUNDARY IS BARELY DISCERNIBLE...BUT REMAINS ALONG THE SOUTHERN PART
OF THE CWA. WILL USE A GRADIENT OF POPS WITH BETTER CHANCES IN THE
SOUTH. DEEPER TROUGH COMES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH ACTUAL
DRY AIR TO ENTER THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.

.JKL...FFA FOR ALL COUNTIES THROUGH 12 AM TUESDAY.

GEOGERIAN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, KY
612 AM EDT TUE JUN 17 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0550 AM    WRIGLEY                   KY   FLASH FLOODS
06/17/03   MORGAN                         DISPATCH REPORTED ONE FOOT
                                          RUNNING WATER ACROSS KY HWY
                                          7 AND HWY 711. DEBRIS
                                          FLOWING ACROSS ROAD.

0605 AM    WRIGLEY                   KY   FLASH FLOODS
06/17/03   MORGAN                         DISPATCH REPORTED TREES
                                          BEING WASHED OUT AND TAKING
                                          DOWN POWER LINES.

RAY