Alert archive / Mississippi / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 486, NWS Jackson, MS

June 12, 2003Adams County, Mississippi

NWS Jackson, MS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 12, 2003, 4:06 PM CDT for Adams County, Mississippi. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 12, 2003, 4:06 PM CDT (21:06 UTC)
Expired: Jun 12, 2003, 5:05 PM CDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS Jackson, MS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Adams County, MS

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Jackson, MS (KJAN), launched 12:00Z, 9.1 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 190 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -86 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 923 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 30 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 169 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS54 KJAN 122106
SVRJAN
MSC001-122205-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
405 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  ADAMS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI

* UNTIL 505 PM CDT

* AT 405 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED   
  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 19 MILES WEST OF SIBLEY...MOVING             
  NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL...
  BE NEAR SIBLEY AT 425 PM CDT
  BE NEAR NATCHEZ AT 445 PM CDT

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND 
TORRENTIAL RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. TAKE COVER IN A 
SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER WHILE THE STORM PASSES.

LAT...LON 3151 9150 3142 9147 3136 9147 3131 9148
          3134 9142 3139 9133 3138 9117 3145 9117
          3151 9117 3161 9116 3161 9132

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Jackson, MS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 12, 1:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 22 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 12, 1:44 PM CDT, 2 hours 22 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
145 CDT THU JUN 12 2003

DO NOT EXPECT TO MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
MODELS HAVE NOT CHANGED MUCH IN THE LAST FEW DAYS. NOT SURE WHAT TO
DO ABOUT POPS TONIGHT. THE SHORT WAVE SEEMS TO BE MOVING INTO WEST
MISSISSIPPI...HELPING TO PUSH THINGS EAST. EXPECT TO GET A SHORT
BREAK...WITH CLOUDS THINNING AND RAIN TAPERING AS THE SHORTWAVE
SWINGS BY. NOT REALLY SURE WHAT TO DO ABOUT POPS FOR TONIGHT. BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD ADD TO INSTABILITY...WITH COMPLEX MOVING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY...EXPECT AREAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF 20 TO GET ANOTHER
ROUND THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. ALTHOUGH THERE IS ANOTHER SYSTEM
TRAILING CLOSELY BEHIND...MAY GO LIKELY/CATEGORICAL TONIGHT AND DROP
TO CHANCE OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT WILL GO DOWN TO THE WIRE. AVN SHOWS A
BOUNDARY FORMING NORTH SATURDAY...WITH THE BULK OF THE RAIN ALONG
AND NORTH. THE BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY WITH MORE
LOW DEVELOPING OVER TEXAS AND MOVING EAST. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS
SATURDAY/SUNDAY...WITH HIGHER CHANCES SUNDAY. LOW DEVELOPS LATE
SATURDAY AND REACHES THE RIVER THE SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER
LOW SETTLING EAST...EXPECT MANY SHORTWAVE TO MOVE THROUGH EMBEDDED
IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. LIKELY POPS FOR MONDAY LOOK GOOD WITH A
STATIONARY BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA AND SEVERAL LOWS MOVING OUT OF
TEXAS. THE GFS KEEPS RAIN IN THROUGH TUESDAY...MAY GO LIKELY THEN
ALSO. OTHERWISE WILL NOT MAKE ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

WILL WAIT AND SEE WHAT TO DO ABOUT FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALSO. WITH
STUFF DEVELOPING GENERAL SOUTH RIGHT NOW...MAY TO ADJUST TO INCLUDE
SOUTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT.

WILL GO WITH A BLEND FOR TEMPS AND WINDS. MOST SEEM TO BE IN
AGREEMENT. WITH CLOUDY SKIES AND RAIN EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED
MAY GO A LITTLE COOLER THAN MEX.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
JAN TB 073/086 072/087 071 53333
    ETTEE 088/071 086/073 089/071 088/071 089 5466654434
MEI TB 072/087 071/086 070 55333
    ETTEE 087/071 085/072 086/071 088/070 088 3366654434=

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 12, 4:01 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
132101-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
401 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
LINGERING SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL COMBINE WITH A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE REGION.

THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...AREAS ACROSS ADAMS
COUNTY...CATAHOULA AND CONCORDIA PARISHES WILL HAVE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SEEING ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA.

THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM WINNSBORO LOUISIANA TO MAGEE TO
LAUREL MISSISSIPPI. THE MAIN CONCERN FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH.

...FLOODING...
DUE TO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE AREA...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN.
THIS HEAVY RAIN MAY RESULT IN THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS. DUE
TO THE MOTION OF SOME THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW LOCATIONS MAY SEE
STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS WHICH MAY RESULT
IN LOCALIZED FLOODING. DUE TO UNCERTAINTIES WITH THE TIMING AND
LOCATION OF ANY HEAVY RAINFALL...WE WILL CONTINUE TO CLOSELY
MONITOR THE SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS...EAST LOUISIANA...AND
MUCH OF MISSISSIPPI.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN THE MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. AS UPPER ATMOSPHERIC
DISTURBANCES CONTINUE TRAVERSING THE REGION...THESE FEATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS TO RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE SATURDAY AFTERNOON TIME FRAME LOOKS TO
HAVE THE HIGHEST SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ENTIRE AREA MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
SETTLE OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION SUNDAY.  SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...AND PROVIDE A STEADY FLOW OF VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY.
THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
WEEK. IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...THIS
WEATHER SETUP IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL. THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...EXPECT THE AREA TO SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AREAS POSSIBLY SEEING 5 PLUS INCHES. DUE TO
MANY CHANCING VARIABLES...THE TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF EVENTS ARE
TOUGH TO PIN POINT. STAY INFORMED FOR UPDATED FORECASTS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...WILL ONLY BE NEEDED EARLY THIS EVENING...AND MAY BE
NEEDED ONCE AGAIN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 12, 10:26 AM CDT, 5 hours 40 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1026 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0840 AM    LARTO                     LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   CATAHOULA                      A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY CATAHOULA
                                          PARISH SHERIFFS OFFICE.

Local storm report, Jun 12, 11:28 AM CDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1128 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0930 AM    SIBLEY                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   ADAMS                          SEVERAL TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

Local storm report, Jun 12, 11:39 AM CDT, 4 hours 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1139 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0910 AM    DEER PARK                 LA   WIND DAMAGE
06/12/03   CONCORDIA                      A FEW TREES AND
                                          POWERLINES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY ELECTRIC POWER
                                          ASSOCIATION.

Special weather statement, Jun 12, 1:24 PM CDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before

MSZ054>066-072>074-121845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
124 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 526 HAS BEEN CANCELLED...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH 526.

IN CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
SMITH...CLARKE...JASPER...SIMPSON AND COPIAH.

IN SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...
COVINGTON...JONES...JEFFERSON...FORREST...LAMAR...MARION...
FRANKLIN...LINCOLN...ADAMS...LAWRENCE AND JEFFERSON DAVIS.

THE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT PROMPTED THE WATCH HAS MOVED OUT OF
THE AREA.

Local storm report, Jun 12, 1:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
158 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1150 PM    1 S RALEIGH               MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/12/03   SMITH                          PUBLIC REPORT.

Local storm report, Jun 12, 1:58 PM CDT, 2 hours 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED TIME OF REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
158 PM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1150 AM    1 S RALEIGH               MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/12/03   SMITH                          PUBLIC REPORT.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Jackson, MS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 11, 7:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Grenada	40 min
Jun 11, 7:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar	63 min
Jun 11, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Grenada	59 min
Jun 11, 7:59 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Grenada	3 hr
Jun 11, 8:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Clay	42 min
Jun 11, 8:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Leflore, Sunflower	61 min
Jun 11, 8:25 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Leflore	3 hr
Jun 11, 8:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Carroll	58 min
Jun 11, 9:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Bolivar	59 min
Jun 11, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Sunflower	42 min
Jun 11, 11:03 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	JAN	Carroll, Holmes, Leflore, Sunflower	3 hr
Jun 11, 11:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Humphreys, Sharkey	43 min
Jun 12, 9:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Adams	57 min
Jun 12, 9:58 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Forrest	42 min
Jun 12, 11:17 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Jefferson Davis, Simpson	43 min
Jun 12, 11:19 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Lawrence	31 min
Jun 12, 11:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	JAN	Smith	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Mississippi, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.