Flash Flood Warning 62, NWS Jackson, MS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
230 CDT WED JUN 10 2003

WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING FORECAST EARLY TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF TODAYS
TROUGH. MODELS AGREE THAT ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM BUT DISAGREE ON THE LOCATION. WILL LEAN TOWARD THE AVN
SOLUTION WHICH MAINTAINS SYSTEM FARTHER WEST THRU DAYBREAK BUT WILL
KEEP CHANCE POPS WRN ZONES FOR THU MORNING.

COLD FRONT REMAINING N OF REGION UNTIL THE WEEKEND BUT OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES WILL LINGER TO FOCUS CONVECTION. SHORTWAVE TRACK PERSISTS
ACROSS THE REGION AND UPPER DIVERGENCE INCREASES THU AS THE UPPER
JET NOSES INTO SW MS. ALTHOUGH SHORTWAVE STRENGTH LOOKS WEAKER
TOMORROW AND 850 MB FLOW TO BE LIGHTER...INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT IN OUR REGION OF DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S FOR AT
LEAST HIGH END CHANCE POPS MOST LOCATIONS. MOST CONCERNED ABOUT
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS CENTRAL AND SRN ZONES...WHERE
UPPER DIVERGENCE LOOK STRONGER AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THRU. HOWEVER...
INSTABILITY LOOKS GREATEST NRN ZONES WHERE HIGH THETAE AND CAPE MAX
SITS NEAR THE MS/TN BORDER. CHANCE LOOKS SMALLER NRN ZONES AT THIS
TIME BUT WILL BROAD BRUSH ISOLATED SEVERE POSSIBILITY ALL ZONES FOR
THU.

WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE FOR CONVECTION THU NIGHT AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
SHIFTS INTO THE AREA. AVN INCREASES STRENGTH OF VORT LOBE AFTER
MIDNIGHT WHICH SUGGESTS POSSIBILITY OF MCS DEVELOPMENT LATE.
OTHER FEATURES NO NOT OFFER MUCH SUPPORT TO THIS AT THIS TIME SO
WILL GO WITH DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THU
NIGHT BUT MAINTAIN CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AIR MASS REMAINS UNSTABLE FRIDAY WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S.
VERTICAL VELOCITY AND UPPER DIVERGENCE VALUES INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA...WHICH
MEANS A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN FOR FRIDAY. WILL KEEP
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT. SRN TIP OF GOOD DYNAMICS
SWINGS ACROSS NW MS OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRIFTS INTO NW
AR. WILL LEAVE KEEP ISOLATED CONVECTION OTHER ZONES...MAINLY IN THE
EVENING HOURS.

GOOD DIVERGENT PATTERN SETTING UP ALOFT AS THE UPPER LOW SETTLES
INTO THE MIDWEST THIS WEEKEND. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR SATURDAY
AS THE TROUGH DEEPENS JUST UPSTREAM. GOOD THUNDERSTORM CHANCE WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FINALLY SAGS INTO NW MS. THE 12Z GFS DRAGS THE BOUNDARY
SWD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY WHILE THE 00Z RUN MAINTAINS THE
BOUNDARY ALONG OF N OF NRN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
WED. UPPER LOW NOW MAINTAINED JUST W OF THE MS RIVER THRU WED SO
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCE IN THROUGH EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

.JAN...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
122350-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
650 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. DAMAGING WINDS FROM 60 TO 70
MPH...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING MAINLY
NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. SEVERAL BOUNDARIES FORMED AHEAD OF A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST...CAUSING
MANY THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON
HEATING...MOISTURE AND OLD BOUNDARIES WILL LEAD TO MORE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EVENING...WHERE A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME
SEVERE.

SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE
WEST EARLY THURSDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO BRING
WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF
MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BRING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE
A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.

...FLOODING...
COMPLEXES OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON COULD PERSIST WELL
INTO THE NIGHT AS THEY MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
NORTH OF HIGHWAY 82.  PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD PRODUCE ONE
TO TWO INCHES CAUSING PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS AND IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL INTERACT WITH A TROPICAL
AIRMASS TO PRODUCE THE HEAVY RAINS. ADDITIONAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
COULD ALSO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE.
WITH SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AN LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL SETTLE  OVER THE ARKLATEX REGION AROUND SUNDAY.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND PROVIDE A
STEADY FLOW OF VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER
THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...KEEPING A CHANCE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
646 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0630 PM    2 W HARDY                 MS   0.75 INCH HAIL
06/11/03   GRENADA                        PUBLIC REPORT NEAR I-55.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
653 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0649 PM    SHELBY                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   BOLIVAR                        TWO TREES DOWN. REPORTED
                                          BY POLICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
728 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0700 PM    1 S MINOT                 MS   60 MPH WIND GUST
06/11/03   SUNFLOWER                      PUBLIC REPORT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
737 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0730 PM    SHELBY                    MS   FLOODING
06/11/03   BOLIVAR                        STREET FLOODING. REPORTED
                                          BY BOLIVAR COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED REPORT TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
737 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0735 PM    SHELBY                    MS   FLOODING
06/11/03   BOLIVAR                        STREET FLOODING. REPORTED
                                          BY BOLIVAR COUNTY EMA.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
739 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0735 PM    SHELBY                    MS   WIND DAMAGE
06/11/03   BOLIVAR                        A FEW TREES DOWN.
                                          REPORTED BY BOLIVAR
                                          COUNTY EMA.