Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
208 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

PRETTY BUSY DUE TO ON GOING SEVERE WX AND WHAT IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS EVENING FOR C IL.

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF THIS WX SYSTEM. AS OF
19Z...CAP HAS WEAKENED ENOUGH...SO TRWS FIRING AND TRACKING EAST
INTO NRN PTNS OF CWA WITH SOME SCATTERED RWS/TRWS IN SERN COUNTIES.

FOR TONIGHT...WILL SEE ACTIVITY ON THE INCREASE WITH SEVERE WEATHER
A GOOD BET THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG
AND LI/S AROUND MINUS 4 WILL COMBINE WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO CREATE EXPLOSIVE CONDITIONS OVER
THE NRN HALF OF IL.

WILL SEE A BREAK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...KEPT CHANCE POPS ALL
LOCATIONS...THEN INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL
OF CWA AS FRONT SWINGS THROUGH.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SLOW PROGRESS OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SO KEPT
LINGERING RWS/TRWS OVER SRN HALF OF CWA THURSDAY MORNING AND ALL DAY
IN THE ERN SECTIONS...BEFORE ENDING THURSDAY EVENING.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...WILL KEEP CWA DRY TIL
MONDAY BEFORE NEXT ROUND OF PCPN MOVES THRU.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF FWC/MAV/MET FOR TEMPS.

SENT ISC GRIDS EARLIER.

.ILX...NONE.

BYRD

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FOUND AT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 72. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
72 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A FULTON TO TAZEWELL TO MCLEAN COUNTY
LINE...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 72.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

PLAHMER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
118 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 PM    BRADFORD                  IL   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/08/03   STARK                          FROM SHERIFF DEPT.

BYRD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
327 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0325 PM    HANNA CITY                IL   1.50 INCH HAIL
07/08/03   PEORIA                         FROM PEORIA COUNTY ESDA.

GOETSCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN, IL
343 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0338 PM    5 SW SOUTH PEKIN          IL   TORNADO
07/08/03   TAZEWELL                       BRIEF TORNADO
                                          TOUCHDOWN...ROOF BLOWN OFF
                                          PEKIN HARDWOODS NEAR
                                          POWERTON ON THE MANITOR
                                          BLACKTOP. FROM COUNTY ESDA.

GOETSCH