Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1045 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

SVR WATCH IN PLACE FROM EASTERN IOWA TO NORTHERN IL...INCLUDING
NORTHERN PORTION OF ILX CWA. SURFACE FRONT IS STRETCHED ACROSS
SOUTHERN IOWA...EASTWARD FM JUST SOUTH OF MOLINE TO NORTH OF
KANKAKEE. UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...WITH CAP ALREADY
BROKEN ACROSS SOUTHWEST-SOUTHCENTRAL IOWA THANKS TO MCV FM EARLIER
NOCTURNAL CONVECTION. WAVE ALONG FRONT IN SOUTHWEST IOWA ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE IN THAT AREA AS WELL. EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP/ENHANCE ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA...MOVING EASTWARD INTO NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL ILLINOIS AFTER NOON. SEVERE TSRA WATCH OUT UNTIL
3 PM.

REMAINDER OF THE AREA MAY SEE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS WELL THIS
AFTERNOON...ALONG OLD OUTFLOW AND OTHER BOUNDARIES. DISPLACED FROM
MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT AND IN MORE CAPPED ATMOSPHERE...SEVERE RISK MORE
LIKELY ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS.

.ILX...NONE.

PLAHMER

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-091100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS. A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS WILL COMBINE WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL ILLINOIS TO PRODUCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
FOUND AT LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 72. THE MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

VERY WARM AND HUMID AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY PUSH ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
BRINGING WITH IT A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. A FEW OF THE STORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE
72 WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WITH THE THREAT SLOWLY SHIFTING
SOUTH OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
ILLINOIS ON THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING. OUR NEXT
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NEEDED THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON AT LOCATIONS
ALONG AND NORTH OF A FULTON TO TAZEWELL TO MCLEAN COUNTY
LINE...WHERE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS ALREADY IN PLACE.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AS FAR SOUTH AS INTERSTATE 72.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

PLAHMER