Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Lincoln, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
255 PM CDT MON JUL 7 2003

HAD SEVERAL ISOLATED SEVERE TRWS THIS MORNING WITH DYING MCS AND AN
ISOLATED CELL DEVELOP JUST NW OF OFFICE ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
JUST AFTER NOON...BUT QUICKLY DIED OUT.

MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE THEIR DIFFERENCES ON STRENGTH OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARY AND SHORTWAVES THAT DEVELOP ALONG IT. WILL CONTINUE WITH A
BLEND OF ETA/GFS.

700 MB TEMPS ARE +12 OR HIGHER OVER AREA AND THIS IS KEEPING THINGS
CAPPED FOR THIS EVENING. SO BELIEVE ACTIVITY WILL NOT FIRE UP UNTIL
MCS...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER ERN NE/WRN IA...MOVES ESE
INTO IL AFTER MIDNIGHT.

TUESDAY MORNING WILL START OFF WET...ESPECIALLY IN NRN PTN OF CWA AS
DYING MCS MOVES INTO THIS AREA. WITH NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
EXPECTED FROM THIS AND CAP FINALLY GONE...WILL NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE MOVE ACTIVITY FIRE TOMORROW. THEN NEXT ROUND OF MCS
DEVELOPMENT...THIS TIME OVER IOWA TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL SLIDE ESE
INTO CWA...BRINGING DECENT RAINS TO MOST OF CWA.

THEN FRONT FINALLY MAKES ITS WAY INTO C IL DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF PCPN. THIS IS WHERE THE REALLY
BIG DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS SHOW UP WITH AVN SHOWING CONVECTIVE
FEEDBACK PROBLEMS WITH S/W THAT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. FOLLOWED ETA MORE FOR THIS TIME PERIOD WITH
PCPN COMING TO AN END BY MID MORNING ON THURSDAY.

AS FOR REST OF EXTENDED FORECAST...KEPT DRY WX IN FOR MOST OF
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY BEFORE NEXT WX SYSTEM AFFECTS AREA BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT.

WENT WITH A BLEND OF FWC/MET/MAV FOR TEMPS.

SENT ISC GRIDS EARLIER.

.ILX...NONE.

BYRD

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>057-061>063-066>068-071>073-072200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
1107 AM CDT MON JUL 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER AT LOCATIONS MAINLY ALONG
AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM QUINCY TO DECATUR TO TERRE HAUTE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. AN UNSTABLE AND MOIST AIRMASS WILL COMBINE
WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY STRETCHED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS TO
PRODUCE THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE FOUND AT
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 74. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT ACROSS CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ILLINOIS...ON TUESDAY...THROUGH WEDNESDAY AND
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
CONTINUE TO BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&
THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC
AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT:

HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ILX. THIS ADDRESS IS ALL
IN LOWER CASE.

PLAHMER