Severe Thunderstorm Warning 41, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
200 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

OVERALL...GOING FCST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. ONLY MINOR TWEAKS NEEDED
ALONG WITH A FEW ADJUSTMENTS HERE AND THERE. WL PLAN ON ISSUING
FORECAST PACKAGE EALIER TODAY DUE TO THE IMMINENT SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT FOR PARTS OF THE CWA.

NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES IN AND NEAR THE CWA WILL MAKE FOR A DIFFICULT
CONVECTION FORECAST FOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ANOTHER
COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THE VARYING AMOUNTS OF INSOLATION ACROSS THE
CWA. ALL IN ALL...SFC MOISTURE IS SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS THE VERY
SRN PART OF THE CWA...AND THE WINDS ARE BACKED AROUND TO THE SE. NO
DOUBT THAT THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS TODAY (APPROX
50-70KTS 0-6KM). INSOLATION IN SRN KS HAS BECOME WEAK AT
BEST...LIMITING SFC BASED INSTABILITY.  HOWEVER...STORMS SHUD DEVLOP
IN MORE UNSTABLE AREAS OF OK AND MOVE RAPIDLY N AND NEWD INTO THE
SRN SXNS OF MY CWA AND RESPOND TO THE GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR AS WELL
AS THE LOW LCL HEIGHTS. STORMS MAY ALSO BE OF THE LOW TOPPED VARIETY
IN THIS SLIGHTLY COOLER AIRMASS UP HERE...BUT NO DOUBT WILL BE
POTENT...I.E...PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY TORNADOES. SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL LIKELY SHIFT FURTHER EWD INTO SERN KS LATER THIS
EVENING. WILL ALSO BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL...ESP IF STORMS CAN TRAIN & PROPAGATE ALONG BOUNDARIES.

STORMS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AND MOVE EWD WITH THE DEPARTING
SYSTEM. WL KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT...ESP FOR S-CNTRL AND SERN
ZONES. AS IMPLIED EALIER...SOME STORMS WILL BE SEVERE...ESP EARLY
ON.

NO BIG CHANGES TO THE REST OF THE FORECAST...AS GOING FORECAST
MATCHES NICELY WITH LATEST MODEL RUNS. NEXT SIG SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA SOMETIME WED AND THURS WITH THE CHC OF TSTMS...AND
CURRENT FCST HANDLES THIS WELL.

GRIDS/ZONES TO FLY BY 215...

AS ALWAYS...COMMENTS/OPINIONS WELCOMED...

FCSTID =5/EKSTER
ICT   45  62  41  67 /  60   5   5   5
HUT   43  61  41  67 /  40  10   5   5
EWK   44  61  41  67 /  50  10   5   5
EQA   46  61  41  67 /  60  10   5   5
WLD   47  64  42  67 /  70   5   5   5
RSL   41  59  39  66 /  30  10   5   5
GBD   41  61  39  66 /  30  10   5   5
SLN   43  60  39  66 /  50  10   5   5
MPR   44  61  41  67 /  50  10   5   5
CFV   48  64  44  67 /  70   5   5   5
CNU   48  62  44  66 /  70  10   5   5
K88   48  61  43  66 /  70  10   5   5

.ICT...
KS...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 800 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR ZONES
KSC015...KSC035...KSC077...KSC095...KSC173...KSC191.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1155 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING

THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TO MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER. OTHERWISE, LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS ARE LIKELY.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA BY EVENING, WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW.
IN ADDITION, A STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN
KANSAS, SOUTH OF A WELLINGTON TO CHANUTE LINE. THE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
DRYLINE IN NORTHERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON, WITH THESE STORMS
MOVING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. OTHER STORMS WILL
DEVELOP NEAR AND ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. THE SEVERE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY MOVE NORTHEAST TO EAST AT SPEEDS OF 30 TO 45
MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
925 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 AM    2 E SEDAN                 KS   WIND DAMAGE
04/19/03   CHAUTAUQUA                     TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          TOP QUARTER OF 20 FT.
                                          BRADFORD TREE WAS TOPPLED
                                          OR SHEARED OVER.

0805 AM    12 NE HOWARD              KS   WIND DAMAGE
04/19/03   ELK                            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          TREE LIMBS DOWNED.

KED