Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA WEATHER SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

VERY ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER DAY ON TAP TDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND
ESPECIALLY SE KS, AS STRONG UPPER WAVE FINALLY KICKS OUT.

HAVE DECIDED NOT TO GO WITH A FFA AT THIS TIME. THE THINKING HERE IS
THAT THE BULK OF THE RAIN THIS MORNING WL FALL OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
KS, WITH SE KS GETTING THE MAIN SHOW TNGHT.

TDAY: THUNDERSTORMS SHUD DEVELOP OVER OKLAHOMA ON THE NOSE OF A 60KT
LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH, AND WL AFFECT SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SE KS DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY. THIS CONVECTION
SHUD MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AS THE MAIN ENERGY WITH THIS SYSTEM LIFTS
OUT. BY 18Z SFC LOW WL BE SITUATED OVER GENERALLY NORTHERN TEXAS,
WITH A DRY LINE MIXING EAST WITH A BULGE OVER SOUTHERN OK AND NORTH
TX. A 100KT 250MB JET WL BE NOSING INTO NORTH CENTRAL OK AROUND 00Z.
WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO FIRE AS THIS FEATURE INTERACTS WITH THE
DRY LINE, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL OK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS GENERALLY
AROUND 21Z. THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY WL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON HOW
CONVECTION THIS MORNING MODIFIES THE ATMOSPHERE. ATTM, IT APPEARS
THE BEST INSTABILITY WL BE OVER CENTRAL OK, WHICH MAKES SENSE GIVING
THE AMOUNT OF LEFT OVER CLOUD COVER WE SHUD HAVE. THE BEST SHOT FOR
SEVERE WX SHUD COME FROM STORMS THAT INITIATE SOUTH OF AREA AND
TRACK INTO CWA. WITH AROUND 70KT OF FLOW AT 500MB, ROTATING STORMS
WL DEFINITELY BE A POSSIBILITY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS,
ESPECIALLY IF THEY CAN INTERACT WITH LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES FROM
MORNING CONVECTION.  THEREFORE, A TORNADO CANT BE RULED OUT,
ESPECIALLY OVER SE KS.

TNGHT: SE KS WL REMAIN IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THEREFORE, SE KS WL HAVE THE BEST SHOT
TO KEEP SEEING TSRAS OVERNIGHT. SHUD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND
AS 850MB DPS REMAIN THE IN THE 5-8 DEGREE RANGE. SOME SECTIONS OF
THE NE AREAS OF CWA MIGHT BE IN THE WRAP AROUND AREA OF STORM,
WHICH MAY WARRANT SOME POPS.

SUN-MON: BY SUN 12Z SFC LOW WL BE SITUATED OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION, WITH WEAK SFC RIDGING WORKING INTO AREA. BY 12Z MON,
SFC LOW OVER GREAT LAKES REGION MOVES VERY LITTLE, AS NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS PLACES CWA IN NW FLOW ALOFT WITH SFC
RIDGE SLIDES OVER AREA.

TUES-FRI: EXTENDED GRIDS FROM PREV FCST LOOK RIGHT ON TRACK WITH
SYSTEM APPROACHING CWA WED-THURS. SFC RIDGE AXIS WL BE BISECTING CWA
BY 12Z, SO WL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BY 12Z WED BOTH THE ECM AND GFS
REALLY HAVE THE GULF OPENED UP AS UPPER WAVE APPROACHES AREA. THE
ECM HAS THIS WAVE CLOSED OFF OVER THE ROCKIES, WHILE THE GFS IS
WEAKER, WITH MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT. NEVERTHELESS, BOTH SUPPORT
RAPID MOISTURE INCREASES/ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER AREA. BY THURS 12Z,
BOTH ECM AND GFS HAVE THIS STRONG UPPER LOW CLOSED OFF GENERALLY
OVER NW KS. THIS WOULD PLACE MOST OF CWA IN A PRIME LOCATION FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH WARM FRONT SCENARIO. THEREFORE, WL
CARRY POPS WED-THURS.  BY THURS NGHT, THE EASTERN SECTION OF CWA
MIGHT STILL HAVE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS, IN THE WRAP AROUND REGION OF
THIS DYNAMIC SYSTEM. ONCE AGAIN, PREV FCST HAS THIS WELL IN HAND. WL
LEAVE FRI DRY FOR NOW. THE WEEKEND COULD GET INTERESTING THOUGH,
WITH BOTH ECM AND GFS FCSTING A VERY INTENSE TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WEST COAST.

FCSTID = 7
ICT   69  47  63  43 / 100  60  10   5
HUT   66  45  63  42 / 100  40  10   5
EWK   69  46  63  42 / 100  50  10   5
EQA   69  48  63  43 / 100  60  10   5
WLD   70  49  65  43 / 100  70  10   5
RSL   61  43  61  39 /  60  30   5   5
GBD   63  43  63  40 /  70  30   5   5
SLN   65  45  62  40 /  70  50  10   5
MPR   68  46  63  42 /  90  50  10   5
CFV   71  50  63  42 / 100  70  10   5
CNU   71  50  63  42 / 100  70  10   5
K88   71  50  63  42 / 100  70  10   5

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

LAWSON

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-201200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
530 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS
AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT, BUT A
TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS TOWARD THE
LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

A POTENT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL KICK OUT INTO THE PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON. AT THE SAME TIME A DRY LINE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
DEFINED OVER CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP NEAR
THIS DRYLINE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. BUT DUE TO
STRONG WIND SHEAR, A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK, AS YET ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL WAVE EJECTS OUT
INTO THE PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS, AND
LIKELY OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

LAWSON

KSZ069-070-093-094-098-191300-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
545 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #130 REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR...GREENWOOD...
BUTLER...ELK...COWLEY AND CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
RENO...KINGMAN...HARPER...HARVEY...SEDGWICK AND SUMNER COUNTIES...

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
612 AM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0429 AM    1S SEDGWICK               KS   WIND DAMAGE
04/19/03   SEDGWICK                       TREE LIMBS DOWNED

KED