Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1017 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

MAIN CONCERN WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE WHERE THE CONVECTION
WILL FIRE TONIGHT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY HAIL. LATEST WATER VAPOR
LOOP SHOWING LOTS OF ENERGY COMING OUT OF THE ARIZONA AND TEXAS
REGION. THIS IS CAUSING GOOD DIFFLUENT FLOW TO TAKE PLACE ACROSS
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. A SECONDARY VORT LOBE IS ALSO SPINNING IN
NORTHWEST IOWA. UPPER LEVEL FLOW LOOKS PRETTY STRONG ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS VORT LOBE WHICH MAY CAUSE GOOD DIFFLUENCE ACROSS
CENTRAL KS. RUC/MESOETA REALLY STARTING TO FOCUS ON CENTRAL KANSAS
ALONG THE PACIFIC BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT. BOTH MODELS ALSO
SHOW ABOUT 2500-3000 G/KG CAPE DEVELOPING ALONG THE BOUNDARY LATE
TONIGHT IN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. WOULD EXPECT
PRIMARY THREAT TO BE HAIL, BUT WITH A DRY POCKET DEVELOPING ABOVE
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WE MAY SEE SOME WIND AS WELL. THIS AREA WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS, BUT YOU CANNOT RULE
SOUTHEAST KS EITHER DUE TO THE POTENTIAL OF A MCS MOVING OUT OF
CENTRAL OK LATE TONIGHT. THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS FINE WE
WILL LEAVE ALONE FOR NOW.

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COX

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CHANCES OF RAIN ALONG WITH SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR
TNGHT AND SAT.

TNGHT
MODELS SHOW DRY LINE FORMING UP AND SETTING UP EAST OF TURNPIKE
EARLY THIS EVENING. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE DRY
LINE FOR SFC BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP JUST TO THE EAST...HOWEVER IF
SFC BASED STORMS CANNOT FIRE ELEVATED STORMS STILL HAVE A DECENT
CHANCE OF DEVELOPING. AS A RESULT WILL GO WITH HIGHER POPS IN SE
CWA. THERE IS SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

SAT-SAT NGHT
MUCH OF THE AREA WILL HAVE A GOOD SHOT OF RAIN AS ANOTHER WAVE MOVES
INTO THE AREA WITH SFC LOW SLIDING EASTWARD ACROSS N OKLAHOMA DURING
THE DAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY AS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL BE IN PLACE. MODELS SHOW
STRONG WIND MAX AT 500MB MOVING OVER SE CWA AROUND 18Z. MESOETA
MODEL SNDINGS SHOW GOOD INSTABILITY AND SHEAR FOR SE CWA...HOWEVER
THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVERAGE DURING THE DAY WOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING.
IF GOOD BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVERAGE CAN DEVELOP THEN THINGS WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED MORE CLOSELY. OTHERWISE MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD
SEE A PRETTY DECENT CHANCES OF RAIN.

SUN-MON
SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO THE AREA WHICH LOOKS TO DRY THINGS OUT FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOING TEMPS SEEM FINE AND WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE
CHANGES TO THESE PERIODS. MODELS HINT AT SOME MSTR TRYING TO WORK
ITS WAY BACK INTO THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT WHICH COULD SPARK OFF
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT INSERT POPS FOR THAT
SCENARIO JUST YET.

EXTENDED: TUES-FRI
MED RANGE MODELS ARE IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE EXTENDED TIME
FRAME AND SHOW SOME PRETTY DECENT SHOTS OF PRECIP ACROSS THE AREA.
TUES STARTS OUT WITH AN UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE MIDDLE OF CONUS
THEN BEGINS TO SHIFT E LATER IN THE DAY AS UPPER TROUGH SLIDES INTO
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL ALLOW MSTR TO STREAM NORTHWARD UP
INTO THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING TROUGH. WILL
HOLD OFF ON PRECIP CHANCES DURING THE DAY PERIOD FOR TUES ATTM BUT
COULD SEE THEM TOSSED IN BY LATER SHIFTS IF THINGS PROGRESS QUICKER.
WILL UP POPS TUES NIGHT AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF HIGH SPEC HUMS
INCREASES DRAMATICALLY. ELEVATED CONVECTION CHANCES LOOKS PRETTY
GOOD FOR WESTERN HALF OF CWA LATE TUES NGHT AS SHOWALTER VALUES DIP
INTO NEG RANGE.

UPPER TROUGH REALLY TAKES ITS TIME TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FOR WED
INTO THUR AS MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM BECOMING CUTOFF UNDER THE UPPER
RIDGE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE OF DEEP MSTR LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO
THURSDAY AND WILL RAISE POP NUMBERS UP A BIT. TEMPS SHOULD BE COOLER
FOR THESE TWO DAYS DUE TO AMPLE CLOUD COVERAGE AND CHANCES OF PRECIP
IN THE MIX. GFS SHOWS SYSTEM DRIFTING EAST OF THE AREA BY FRI...BUT
THE CUTOFF NATURE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD STILL LINGER.
AS A RESULT WILL KEEP TEMPS MAINLY IN THE 60S FOR FRI.

FCSTID = 15/JAKUB
ICT   55  67  45  62 /  30  70  60  10
HUT   52  66  43  62 /  20  60  40  10
EWK   53  67  44  62 /  30  70  50  10
EQA   54  68  46  62 /  30  80  60  10
WLD   56  69  47  64 /  40  80  70  10
RSL   47  64  41  60 /  10  40  20   5
GBD   48  65  41  62 /  10  50  30   5
SLN   50  66  43  60 /  20  50  30  10
MPR   53  67  44  62 /  30  70  50  10
CFV   59  70  51  64 /  60  90  70  10
CNU   57  68  50  63 /  60  90  70  10
K88   57  68  49  62 /  60  90  70  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1030 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. THESE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AFTER 4AM ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
EXTENDS FROM ELLSWORTH TO GREAT BEND. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE
THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL ALONG WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING
WINDS. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT. SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO BECOME SEVERE WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE, WITH THE MAIN RISK BEING LARGE HAIL.

ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL ARRIVE BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE AFTER 4 AM, BUT THE BEST
POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM