Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Wichita, KS

000 
WGUS73 KICT 090256
FFSICT
KSC173-090315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
952 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR SEDGWICK COUNTY UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAINFALL RATES OF 
ONE INCH AN HOUR OVER PORTIONS OF SEDGWICK COUNTY. UP TO 3 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE AREA SINCE THIS AFTERNOON.  

AT 952 PM CDT...AN OFF DUTY WEATHER SERVICE EMPLOYEE REPORTED CARS 
WERE STALLED AT RIDGE AND CENTRAL IN WEST WICHITA. ALSO WATER WAS 
OVER THE ROAD AT 13TH AND RIDGE ROAD.  

EXPLORATION PLACE IN DOWNTOWN WICHITA HAD REPORTED 1.75 INCHES OF 
RAINFALL IN THE LAST HOUR. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT...WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS.


STAY TUNED TO LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

$$

/KETCHAM

NNNN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2003

MAIN FCST CONCERN DEALS WITH LOCATION AND WHEN TO END PRECIP TNGHT
INTO THURSDAY.

THE PRECIP ONGOING TDAY IS A RESULT OF ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE 305K
SURFACE WHICH COINCIDES WITH LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. THE MAIN
VORT LOBE VIA SAT AND PROFILERS APPEARS TO BE LAGGING BACK OVER NM/CO

TNGHT-THURS: A WET NGHT SHUD BE ON TAP FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND SE KS.
A VORT LOBE IS FCSTED TO KICK OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.
THE ETA IS ALSO INDICATING A DECENT AREA OF UPPER DIVERGENCE SETTING
UP OVER SC KS, WHICH IS AN INDICATION OF SOME UPPER JET INFLUENCE
OVER AREA. SO WL CONTINUE LIKELY POPS OVER SC AND MOST OF SE KS
TAPERING TO CHANCE OVER CENTRAL KS. SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY AFFECT SC
AND SE KS BRIEFLY THURS MORNING, BEFORE BEING MAINLY CONFINED TO
EASTERN OKLAHOMA. SO WL ADJUST POPS ACCORDINGLY WITH A CHANCE OVER
SC AND SE KS BEFORE NOON AND JUST A SLGHT CHANCE OVER SE KS AFTER
NOON.

THURS NGHT-SAT: WEAK UPPER RIDGING WL SETTLE OVER THE AREA THURS
NGHT, SHUTTING OFF PRECIP CHANCES FOR THURS NGHT AND FRI. A COLD
FRONT IS STILL EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE CWA SAT, BUT THE MODELS
HAVE SLOWED IT DOWN A TAD BIT. NEVERTHELESS THE FRONT SHUD SWEEP
THROUGH CWA BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND 00Z SUN. WL KEEP A SLGHT CHANCE IN
SAT, BUT ATTM I DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT, MAYBE JUST SOME
LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG OR SLIGHTLY BEHIND FRONT.

SUN-WED:
WENT AHEAD AND KEPT DRY FCST GOING FOR THE EXTENDED. MED RANGE
MODELS AGREE FAIRLY WELL THROUGH MON. BY TUES, SOME DISCREPANCIES DO
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECM.

SUN AND MON SHUD BE FAIRLY PLEASANT FALL DAYS ACROSS THE AREA. SFC
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SITUATED OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN SUNNY
SKIES AND CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMPS. UPPER FLOW WL FLATTEN OUT PRODUCING
SOME LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND POSSIBLY SOME DOWNSLOPEING AND GOOD
MIXING MON. THEREFORE LOOK FOR WARMER TEMPS MON. BY TUES THE ECM IS
DIGGING A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE SW WHILE THE GFS IS PROGRESSING THIS
TROUGH FARTHER EAST. THIS DIFFERENCE RESULTS IN THE GFS PUSHING A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH TUES MORNING WITH THE ECM HEARING NONE OF
THIS. BECAUSE OF THIS DIFFERENCE HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE DRY AND GO WITH
GENERALLY CLOSE TO NORMAL TEMP VALUES. HOPEFULLY THINGS BECOME MORE
CLEAR WITH ADDITIONAL FCSTS.

FCSTID = 7/LAWSON
ICT   60  76  60  79 /  80  30  10  10
HUT   59  78  59  81 /  70  20   5  10
EWK   59  75  59  79 / 100  40  10  10
EQA   59  74  59  79 /  80  40  10  10
WLD   61  74  60  79 / 100  50  10  10
RSL   58  80  59  83 /  40   5   5  10
GBD   58  78  59  81 /  50   5   5  10
SLN   60  79  59  82 /  40  20   5  10
MPR   59  75  59  79 /  70  40  10  10
CFV   60  73  60  78 /  80  50  10  10
CNU   59  73  59  77 /  90  50  10  10
K88   59  73  59  78 /  70  50  10  10

.ICT...
KS...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-091200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
347 PM CDT WED OCT 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY TONIGHT ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. ALTHOUGH NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED, SOME ISOLATED LOCATIONS MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING.

THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS LIKELY TONIGHT, A FEW ISOLATED
LOCATION MAY EXPERIENCE SOME MINOR FLOODING. THIS WILL ESPECIALLY BE
THE CASE IN LOW LYING AREAS ALONG SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY, MAINLY IN
THE MORNING ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS, PERHAPS CONTINUING INTO THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN ON SATURDAY,
HOWEVER THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/ICT/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/LAWSON