Severe Thunderstorm Warning 9, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
830 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

UPDATED TO INCLUDE A TORNADO WATCH FOR NORTHEAST ALABAMA COUNTIES

BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS HAVE ENABLED THE ATMOSPHERE TO DESTABILIZE
FURTHER IN NORTHEAST AL. A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...ORIENTED
NORTH TO SOUTH FROM MADISON COUNTY DOWN TO CULLMAN COUNTY...IS
MOVING SLOWLY EAST. A FEW CELLS IN THE LINE ARE DEMONSTRATING
ROTATION. ALSO...LINE INTERACTION WITH RUGGED TERRAIN COULD ENHANCE
STORM INTENSITY.

THE PERTINENT PART OF THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS.

IT WILL BE CLEARING FROM W TO E BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  ETA...MM5 AND
GFS ALL SIMILAR IN DEPICTING NOTICEABLY DRIER CONDITIONS IN THE
LOWEST LAYERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ON THRU FRI...IN MARKED CONTRAST
TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY STEEP ACROSS THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI...BUT WITH MOISTURE IN SHORT SUPPLY...
HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THIS AFTERNOON ON THRU THE WEEKEND.

HAVING SAID THAT...NEW 06Z MESO-ETA DOES DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THRU NRN AL IN THE THURS MORNING TIMEFRAME.  JUST ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CAPE MAY EXIST TO FIRE SOME
SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE ERN ZONES (PER THE MM5 AND 06Z MESO-ETA)...
SO WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ALIVE E OF I-65 TNGT/THURS.  QUITE A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND OMIT POPS FURTHER
W...WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY THRU FRI.

GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURS...BUT DONT FEEL THE THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT STRONG
OR SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES.  WILL EXPOUND ON THE THREAT IN THE
MRNG HWO TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

GUIDANCE ADVERTISING DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
PRESENCE OF DECENT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW.  WILL SEE A MODEST COOL OFF
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FRI AFTN.

.HUN...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL NOONTIME FOR MADISON...MORGAN...CULLMAN
...JACKSON...DE KALB...AND MARSHALL COUNTIES IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA.

SCHAUB

ALZ001>010-016-191900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
828 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING NORTHERN ALABAMA COUNTIES UNTIL 12
NOON...

MADISON...MORGAN...CULLMAN...MARSHALL...DEKALB...AND JACKSON.

LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST ALABAMA WILL COMBINE WITH A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL
END BY 10 AM OVER MADISON...MORGAN AND CULLMAN COUNTIES AND OVER
JACKSON...DEKALB AND MARSHALL COUNTIES BY NOON TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
MAINLY ACROSS JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTITES...DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH
JUST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS IS NOT NEEDED AT THE MOMENT BUT REPORT ANY
SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS OR THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHUMWAY

ALZ003-004-191100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
435 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
FRANKLIN AND WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM.  PERSONS IN
THE PHIL CAMPBELL...MOUNT HOPE AND MOULTON AREAS CAN EXPECT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...POSSIBLE WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL
HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

JTB

ALZ004>010-016-191400-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO SPEEDS OF 35 MPH...WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH 8 AM.  THE
WIND WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN OPEN AREAS AND ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE
TOPS. PERSONS DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE
ADDITIONAL CAUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHEN CROSSING
LARGE BRIDGES.  THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF BLOWING A
FEW POORLY ROOTED TREES DOWN...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 8 AM.

JTB