Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
330 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

CURRENT RADAR SHOWING A BROAD SWATH OF SHWRS/TSTMS PIVOTING NEWD
THRU THE NRN HALF OF AL AT THE MOMENT...BEING FORCED WITHIN THE LEFT
EXIT REGION OF A STRONG 300 MB JET NOW NOSING INTO S AL.  WV AND IR
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTING A STRONG PUNCH OF DRY AIR APPROACHING AL
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE PRECIP BAND...WITH CLEARING SKIES THE RULE
ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY.

BASED ON RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS...EXPECT THE PRECIP AXIS TO
TRANSLATE RAPIDLY NEWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AREA THIS
MORNING...FOLLOWED BY CLEARING FROM W TO E BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
ETA...MM5 AND GFS ALL SIMILAR IN DEPICTING NOTICEABLY DRIER
CONDITIONS IN THE LOWEST LAYERS FROM THIS AFTERNOON ON THRU FRI...IN
MARKED CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS RUNS.  LAPSE RATES WILL STILL BE FAIRLY
STEEP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND FRI...BUT WITH MOISTURE IN
SHORT SUPPLY...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THIS AFTERNOON ON THRU THE WEEKEND.

HAVING SAID THAT...NEW 06Z MESO-ETA DOES DEPICT ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
ROTATING THRU NRN AL IN THE THURS MORNING TIMEFRAME.  JUST ENOUGH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW-LEVEL CAPE MAY EXIST TO FIRE SOME
SCATTERED TSTMS IN THE ERN ZONES (PER THE MM5 AND 06Z MESO-ETA)...
SO WILL KEEP SMALL POPS ALIVE E OF I-65 TNGT/THURS.  QUITE A CHANGE
FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGES...BUT WILL GO AHEAD AND OMIT POPS FURTHER
W...WHERE RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE IN SHORT SUPPLY THRU FRI.

GIVEN THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COULD SEE SOME GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS
SOME HAIL WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN
THURS...BUT DONT FEEL THE THREAT IS GREAT ENOUGH TO WARRANT STRONG
OR SEVERE WORDING IN THE ZONES.  WILL EXPOUND ON THE THREAT IN THE
MRNG HWO TO FOLLOW SHORTLY.

GUIDANCE ADVERTISING DAYTIME TEMPS CLIMBING WELL INTO THE 70S...AND
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND
PRESENCE OF DECENT SOUTHERLY SFC FLOW.  WILL SEE A MODEST COOL OFF
FOR THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT CLEARS THE AREA FRI AFTN.

HSV 72/50/74/49/70 82200
MSL 74/50/76/48/68 60000

.HUN...NONE.

JTB

ALZ001>010-016-191900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
500 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH. DRIER LOW LEVEL AIR
WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE TROUGH ENDING THE RAIN CHANCES
BY AROUND MIDDAY. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW.
HOWEVER...A FEW STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...SMALL HAIL...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEAST ALABAMA LATE THIS MORNING.

THE DRIER AIR WILL PREVENT THE REDEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
MOST OF THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER...AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE GEORGIA
STATE LINE LATE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA ON
THURSDAY. LOW LEVEL DRY AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MOST OF NORTH ALABAMA. HOWEVER...AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS NORTHEASTERN ALABAMA...
MAINLY ACROSS JACKSON AND DEKALB COUNTITES...DURING THE DAY ON
THURSDAY. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DOES DEVELOP IN THIS AREA WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL.

THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND SEASONABLE WITH
JUST A LOW CHANCE OF RAIN ON MONDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

MZ

ALZ005-006-190930-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
LIMESTONE AND WESTERN MADISON COUNTIES THROUGH 330 AM.  LOCATIONS IN
THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MADISON...HARVEST...AND HUNTSVILLE.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

MR

ALZ003-004-191100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
435 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH ACROSS EASTERN
FRANKLIN AND WESTERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES THROUGH 515 AM.  PERSONS IN
THE PHIL CAMPBELL...MOUNT HOPE AND MOULTON AREAS CAN EXPECT
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...POSSIBLE WINDS GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND SMALL
HAIL WITH THIS STORM.

JTB

ALZ004>010-016-191400-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
555 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHERN ALABAMA THIS
MORNING...

STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS...GUSTING AT TIMES TO SPEEDS OF 35 MPH...WILL
AFFECT THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY THROUGH 8 AM.  THE
WIND WILL BE MOST NOTICEABLE IN OPEN AREAS AND ALONG THE HIGHER RIDGE
TOPS. PERSONS DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES SHOULD EXERCISE
ADDITIONAL CAUTION EARLY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY WHEN CROSSING
LARGE BRIDGES.  THE STRONG WINDS MAY ALSO BE CAPABLE OF BLOWING A
FEW POORLY ROOTED TREES DOWN...MAINLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
RAINFALL OVERNIGHT.  THE WINDS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE AFTER 8 AM.

JTB