Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
220 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD SHIFT
FROM THE NORTHEAST AL COUNTIES INTO GA...BASED ON THE 925-MB THETA-E
ADVECTION SHOWN IN THE MESOETA MODEL. HOWEVER...ISOLATED STRONG
CELLS COULD DEVELOP AT ANY TIME OVER NORTHERN AL...DUE TO THE
DYNAMICS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA.

LAPSE RATES...AS INDICATED BY THE TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN 850
MB AND 500 MB...CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD CORE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST GETS CLOSER. STEEP LAPSE
RATES CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAYTIME AND EVENING ON THURSDAY. ALSO...
THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 300-MB JET STREAK REMAINS OVER NORTHERN AL
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

LOWER DEW POINT TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHWEST AL...WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO ISOLATED...WITH SCATTERED
ACTIVITY POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE BEST TIME FOR ACTIVITY ON THURSDAY
WILL BE THE DAYLIGHT HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST COUNTIES.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WITH THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS THROUGH
NORTHERN AL LATE FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES RETURN TO SEASONABLE THROUGH MID WEEK WITH A CHANCE OF
RAIN MONDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

HSV 52/78 48/69  33120
MSL 50/78 48/67  22120

.HUN...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 6 PM FOR JACKSON...DE KALB AND MARSHALL
       COUNTIES.

SCHAUB

ALZ001>010-016-200304-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
128 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

TORNADO WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING NORTHERN ALABAMA COUNTIES UNTIL 6
PM...

MARSHALL...DEKALB...AND JACKSON.

VERY STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS WILL COMBINE WITH AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE TO PRODUCE THE CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 PM OVER THE WATCH AREA. HOWEVER ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. SOME STORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

THE CHANCE OF MORE SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN ALABAMA BY FRIDAY EVENING...ENDING THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS OR
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

SHUMWAY

ALZ008>010-192000-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1148 AM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING FAR NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING VERY SLOWLY EAST...
WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA WITH SEVERE WEATHER INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. ISOLATED CELLS WITHIN THIS LINE HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL.

THERE WERE SEVERAL REPORTS OF FUNNEL CLOUDS...HAIL...AND DAMAGING
WINDS IN NORTHEAST ALABAMA THIS MORNING...INCLUDING A SMALL
TORNADO NEAR TONEY IN MADISON COUNTY.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR UPDATES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SCHAUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
105 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

TIME(CST)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1215 PM    ALBERTVILLE               AL   0.75 IN HAIL
03/19/03   MARSHALL                       DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED
                                          BY SPOTTERS.

1227 PM    2NE ALBERTVILLE           AL   0.75 IN HAIL
03/19/03   MARSHALL                       DIME SIZE HAIL. REPORTED
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

1238 PM    ASBURY                    AL   0.75 IN HAIL
03/19/03   MARSHALL                       DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

1245 PM    GROVE OAK                 AL   1.50 IN HAIL
03/19/03   DEKALB                         PING PONG HAIL REPORTED
                                          BY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
                                          AND SPOTTERS.

1249 PM    SECTION                   AL   TORNADO
03/19/03   JACKSON                        SEVERAL HOMES DAMAGED AND
                                          TREES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          SPOTTERS.

1252 PM    DUTTON                    AL   TORNADO
03/19/03   JACKSON                        TORNADO ON GROUND WITH
                                          DAMAGE INDICATED.
                                          REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTERS.

ALZ008>010-192100-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
155 PM CST WED MAR 19 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTING EXTREME NORTHEAST ALABAMA...

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20
MPH WILL AFFECT LOCATIONS EAST OF A STEVENSON AND ALBERTVILLE
LINE THROUGH 3 PM. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
ISOLATED TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND HAIL. ALSO VERY HEAVY RAIN
WILL FALL FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE FLASHING
FLOODING OF AREA STREAMS AND CREEKS.

STAY TUNED TO YOUR WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER MEDIA FOR UPDATES AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

SHUMWAY

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