Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
300 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

A LULL IN THE ACTION WELCOMED...WHICH GIVE A BIT OF TIME TO UPDATE/
CREATE THE EVENING FORECAST PACKAGE. THE NORTH AMERICAN VIEW OF
WATER VAPOR/INFRARED INDICATED A SURGE OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
HEADED FROM SOUTH OF THE BAJA TO THE SE LOWER 48. SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE VIA THE VISIBLE SPECTRUM SHOWS A BAND OF THICKER...HIGHER
CLOUDS HEADED THIS WAY FROM THE PINEY WOODS TO EAST OF MERIDIAN.
19Z SURFACE MAP AND VISIBLE SATELLITE ANIMATION SUGGESTS A BOUNDARY
EXTENDING EAST/WEST FROM NEAR TUSCULLOSA TO SOUTH OF FORT PAYNE.
FEWER CLOUDS OVER THE NW COUNTIES HAVE HELPED HIGH TEMPS THUS FAR
WARMER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHTS LATE THIS MORNING.

WILL MAKE FEW CHANGES PLANNED TO THE ON-GOING FORECASTS. WITH CURRENT
THINKING...THIS QUIET TIME BETWEEN THE STORMS COULD GO AWAY LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. 18Z SOUNDING NWS BMX SHOWS CAPES
FOR THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE IN THE 3400 J/KG...WHILE BUF
SOUNDINGS FROM THE ETA WERE RISING TO THE 3K RANGE NEXT HOUR...AND
STAYING ABOVE 1K THROUGH 10 PM.

WITH ADDITIONAL RAINS EXPECTED...WE WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MODEL OUTPUT CONCERNING QPF WAS NOT
CONSISTENT. THE MM5 IS SUGGESTING ANOTHER SHOT OF CONVECTION
CENTERED ABOUT A DAY FOR NOW. THE ETA/NGM/AVN SUGGEST AGAIN MORE
RAINS AGAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH MORE SCATTERED COVERAGE TOMORROW.

FOR THE EXTENDED...WILL END THE PRECIP IN THE UPCOMING ZONES AFTER
THURSDAY...AND HOPEFULLY CONTINUE A DRY CAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THEN
MORE PRECIP NEXT MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

FIRST GUESS TEMPS AND POPS FOLLOW...

HSV 67/82 65/83 68  5532
MSL 68/81 65/84 68  5532
CUL 69/83 67/88 68  5532
FTP 66/82 66/83 67  6532

.HUN...TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTH ALABAMA UNTIL 7 PM TODAY.
       FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

BOYD

ALZ001>010-016-071030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
941 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TONIGHT)...

ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING
ACROSS PARTS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND EVENTUALLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ALABAMA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT AS
ANOTHER LARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE AREA.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALONG WITH A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.  FLASH
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A MAJOR THREAT AS THIS PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THROUGH AT
LEAST THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITATION WILL BE
TAPERING OFF BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION IS
POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY ON THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.  DRIER WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.

MR

ALZ003-004-070400-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
943 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE ACROSS LAWRENCE COUNTY THROUGH 11 PM.
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH...SMALL HAIL...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS WILL
BE LIKELY. THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED SO ANY ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL WILL RUN OFF QUICKLY.