Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1040 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGES CONCERN SVR WX YET AGAIN...

CONVECTION CONTINUING ACROSS MS/AL AGAIN THIS MORNING WITH FORECAST
AREA MAINLY SEEING HEAVY RAIN ATTM. STRONGEST CELL NEAR COLUMBUS MS
MOVING EAST INTO BETTER INSTABILITY. WIDESPREAD RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS
HAVE HELPED STABILIZE REGION FOR THE MOMENT WITH BACK EDGE OF RAIN
APPROACHING NORTHWEST COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG
SHORTWAVE LOCATED NEAR VICKSBURG MS CONTINUES MOVING OFF TO
NORTHEAST TOWARD REGION.

BIG CHALLENGE FOR TODAY WILL BE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
VIS IMAGERY SHOWS SIGNIFICANT BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF ARKANSAS WITH THINNING IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI. EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER SHOULD GRADUALLY BREAK UP TODAY AND HELP DESTABILIZE
ATMOSPHERE. LARGE-SCALE FORCING EXITS AREA ALTHOUGH SCATTERED STORMS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ADDITIONAL HEATING. EXPECT THESE TO BE MORE
HIT AND MISS THAN CONTINUAL DEVELOPMENT WITH SEVERE THREAT STILL
POSSIBILITY THROUGH AFTERNOON HOURS. RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AND SHEAR
EVIDENT FROM KGWX-88D WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED SVR THREAT TODAY.

THREAT FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE WITH EXTREMELY LOW FFG VALUES AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUING. SAVING GRACE WILL BE COMPLEX TO SOUTH
WILL HELP IMPEDE MOISTURE FLOW INTO OUR AREA.

WILL UPDATE ZONES FOR TIMING AND THREATS. UPDATE WILL BE OUT BY 17Z.

.HUN...TORNADO WATCH FOR CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB COUNTIES
UNTIL 4 PM.

FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY.

BRIDENSTINE

ALZ001>010-016-071800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY.  AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER FEATURE...A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
WITH ISOLATED ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS RAINFALL...FALLING ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY EARLIER
RAINS...MAY AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING CONDITIONS WHICH ALREADY EXIST
WITH SEVERAL OF THE STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THE STORMS TODAY MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH.  AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

JTB

ALZ001>003-071345-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
738 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM...
...FLOOD WATCH TODAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL
BECOME HEAVIER AROUND 9 AM IN THIS AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AND ADDED TO YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAIN...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME SECONDARY ROADS ARE STILL
PARTIALLY COVERED WITH WATER.  NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS

ALSO POSSIBLE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

SHUMWAY

ALZ001>010-016-071630-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1052 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 284 HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ALABAMA. THIS REPLACES TORNADO WATCH
NUMBER 283 WHICH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT...

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA ARE INCLUDED IN TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 284...

CULLMAN...MARSHALL AND DEKALB.

THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ALABAMA ARE NOW CLEAR OF ALL
TORNADO WATCHES...

LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN...
JACKSON AND LAWRENCE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...FOR LATER WEATHER STATEMENTS.

CBD