Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
244 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

1ST PERIOD CONCERNS...ANY MORE SEVERE WX/FLOODING.
WILL CONTINUE THE FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY AS EXPECTING ANOTHER 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN ON SATURATED GROUND.

THERE IS A LULL IN THE ACTION ATTM BUT ANOTHER VORT MAX/SHORT WAVE
OVER SRN ARKANSAS IS QUICKLY HEADING IN OUR DIRECTION. WILL PROBABLY
BE IN WRN ZONES BETWEEN 5-6 AM AND THEN SPREAD ACROSS REST OF NRN AL
DURING THE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. TSRA/SHRA MAY BE OVER WITH IN WRN
ZONES ARND NOONTIME. FOR NOW WILL NOT GET FANCY WITH TIMING OF PCPN
AND BROADBRUSH WITH 80 POP FOR ALL OF CWA FOR 1ST PERIOD. THEN IF ETA
IS RIGHT...TONIGHT SHOULD DRY...HOWEVER WILL PUT A SILENT POP OF 20
IN FOR TONIGHT.

THEN A WEAKER SHORT WAVE...ALSO A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NRN AL ON THURSDAY...WILL PUT IN 30 POPS CWA WIDE/20 POPS
THURSDAY EVENING.

THEN FRIDAY RIDGING BEGIN...SO WILL THE HEAT. 7H TEMPS ACCORDING TO
ETA ARE IN THE 10-11C RANGE FRIDAY MORNING. LOOKS TO BE WARM/DRY
DAY FOR SATURDAY TOO. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE STATE BY
SUNDAY AND SHOULD FINALLY PUSH THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A LITTLE
COOLER TEMPS ON MONDAY. MONDAY SHOULD BE DRY WITH RAIN TO OUR
SOUTH.

ADJUSTED THE EXTENDED FCST TO PUT POPS IN SUNDAY LEAVE THEM OUT ON
MONDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE BEHIND COLD FRONT BRINGS THE CHANCE OF
PCPN BACK ON TUESDAY.

PRELIMINARY CCF...

HSV 79/65 85/66 88  8232
MSL 80/66 86/67 89  8232

.HUN...TORNADO WATCH FOR LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...
LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN...MARSHALL...LAWRENCE...JACKSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 6 AM.

FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY.

SHUMWAY

ALZ001>010-016-071800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
507 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...A WARM...MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA TODAY.  IN THE
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER TODAY.  AHEAD OF THIS
UPPER FEATURE...A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF ALABAMA DURING THE MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS.

THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...
WITH ISOLATED ONE TO TWO INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS RAINFALL...FALLING ON GROUND ALREADY SATURATED BY EARLIER
RAINS...MAY AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING CONDITIONS WHICH ALREADY EXIST
WITH SEVERAL OF THE STREAMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE.

IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT...THE STORMS TODAY MAY
PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 40
MPH.  AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE AFFECTED BY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING...WITH THE THREAT SHIFTING TO THE
EASTERN COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  THE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DIMINISH LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE DAY ON
THURSDAY AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DRIER
WEATHER RETURNS BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED DURING THE LATE MORNING TO MID AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY.

JTB

ALZ001>009-071100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
440 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 280 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES...

LAUDERDALE...COLBERT...FRANKLIN...LIMESTONE...MADISON...MORGAN...
MARSHALL...JACKSON AND LAWRENCE.

MORE THUNDERSTORMS OVER ARKANSAS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHWEST ALABAMA
AROUND 8 AM AND THEN SPREAD OVER THE REST OF NORTHERN ALABAMA BY
AFTERNOON. THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS TIME WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO OR TELEVISION
STATIONS...FOR LATER WEATHER STATEMENTS.

SHUMWAY

ALZ001>003-071345-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
738 AM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 1 PM...
...FLOOD WATCH TODAY...

AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONTINUING TO MOVE INTO
LAUDERDALE...COLBERT AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES. THE RAIN WILL
BECOME HEAVIER AROUND 9 AM IN THIS AREA. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED AND ADDED TO YESTERDAYS HEAVY RAIN...
WIDESPREAD FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. SOME SECONDARY ROADS ARE STILL
PARTIALLY COVERED WITH WATER.  NEVER DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS

ALSO POSSIBLE WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED
TORNADOES.

SHUMWAY