Severe Thunderstorm Warning 4, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
215 AM CST THU FEB 20 2003

AT 06Z...SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED AN AREA OF DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
BETWEEN BRO AND LRD WITH A TROF OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDING NE ALONG
THE COAST AND INTO S LA. PRECIP CONTINUES TO FIRE ALONG THIS BNDRY.
AT 85H...LOW PRESSURE WAS ALSO SHOWING UP BETWEEN LRD AND BRO. S-SE
WINDS OF 30 KTS ON THE EAST OF THIS FEATURE WAS HELPING TO PROVIDE
THE INFLOW TO KEEP THE ACTIVITY GOING. AT 25H...SE TX IS STILL IN A
RRQ/LFQ COUPLET AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS REMAIN DIVERGENT. IT SEEMS
THAT ALL INGREDIENTS ARE IN PLACE FOR AN ACTIVE DAY OF WEATHER.

THE SFC LOW NEAR BRO WILL INTENSIFY AND SCOOT UP THE COAST AS A DEEP
50H TROF CROSSES THE STATE. PWS WILL REMAIN BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.45
INCHES TODAY...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR HEAVY RAIN FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BOTH THE ETA AND AVN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH SHUTTING OFF
THE RAIN BY EVENING.

SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SE TX IN EITHER SLIGHT OR MODERATE RISK FOR
TODAY. THE COUNTIES WHICH LIE IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE APPROACHING
LOW FACE THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER. THINK THE GREATEST
RISK WILL BE AREAS EAST OF THE U.S. 59 CORRIDOR. STORM MOTION HAS
BEEN PRETTY QUICK...GENERALLY 20-25 KNOTS...SO FLOODING THUS FAR HAS
BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS THAT SAW REPEAT ECHOES. STILL FEEL FLOODING
IS A LEGITIMATE CONCERN TODAY AS 85H DEW POINTS REMAIN AOA 10C...
HIGH PWS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED JET COUPLET. WILL KEEP FFA AS
CONFIGURED BUT THINK THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL BE
AREAS NEAR THE COAST WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS
LOCATED. KHGX 88-D APPEARS TO BE OVERESTIMATING RAINFALL BY ABOUT 10
PERCENT. WILL SEND OUT HWOHGX EARLY WITH ALL THE DETAILS.

UPCOMING WEEKEND LOOKS OK. PCLDY SKIES WITH A WARMING TREND. IN THE
LATER PERIODS...WILL REMAOVE MENTION OF THUNDER FOR MON/TUE. NEXT
UPPER LEVEL TROF AND COLD FRONT COMES THROUGH WED/THU AND WILL
KEEP POPS GOING THRU THURSDAY. THEN IT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER RAIN MAKER
NEXT WEEKEND. 43/40

.HGX...FFA ALL OF SE TX.

PRELIMS...
CLL TB 061/049 069/045 070 +30
IAH TB 061/052 069/047 071 +20
GLS TB 068/055 066/057 068 +30

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-211300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
428 PM CST THU FEB 20 2003

...THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
TEXAS THROUGH FRIDAY...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

A STATIONARY FRONT FROM NEAR COLUMBUS TO BEAUMONT WILL MEANDER
SLOWLY NORTH OVERNIGHT. DEEP MOISTURE WILL STREAM INLAND AND WILL
OVER RUN THIS BOUNDARY HELPING TO FOCUS HEAVY RAINS.  A SERIES OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION BRINGING BANDS OF
PRECIPITATION. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
TOTALS OF 7 TO 9 INCHES BY THE TIME THE EVENT COMES TO AN END FRIDAY
EVENING. GIVEN THE HEAVY RAINS THAT HAVE FALLEN A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY.

IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.  LARGE HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS...WITH
DAMAGING WINDS ALSO POSSIBLE.

REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. CHECK OVER YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME...BUT RIVER FLOODING PROBLEMS COULD BE ONGOING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED
FRIDAY.