Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
225 PM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

STRONG CONVECTION INCREASING IN AREAL COVERAGE OVER REGION. WARM
FRONT MOVING FARTHER NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL ZONES AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS CWFA. TORNADO WATCH CONTINUES TIL 4 PM FOR
ALL OF CWFA. GOES 18Z SOUNDING FOR LCH REGION SHOWS LIS AT MINUS 5
W/CAPE NEAR 2700 J/KG. SURFACE LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE TO NEAR LFK BY
00Z W/FOCUS OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST OF CWFA BY THEN. WE CAN STILL
EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA EARLY EVENING HOURS ESPECIALLY EASTERN
ZONES TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW MOVING OVER AREA. UPPER LOW PROGGED TO
BE NEAR LFK/SHV REGION BY MIDNIGHT. WRAP-AROUND MOISTURE GRADUALLY
MOVING EAST OF CWFA EARLY SATURDAY. WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY MOVING
ACROSS NORTHERN TIER OF LONE STAR STATE TOWARDS END OF WEEKEND.
ASSOCIATED DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
ARKANSAS. COLD FRONT SHOWN BY GFS TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE COAST EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. MOISTURE APPEARS TO BE LACKING WITH THIS FRONT.
CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF REGION DUE TO UPPER
LEVEL FLOW BEING WESTERLY. STRONGER UPPER LEVEL ENERGY MOVING ACROSS
REGION BY MID WEEK SHOULD BRING US A HIGHER CHANCE OF CONVECTION.

SURFACE WATER TEMPERATURES RUNNING IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS GLS BAY
AND NEAR SHORE WATERS. THIS HAS BEEN CAUSING PATCHY DENSE FOG ESPECIALLY
ALONG THE HOUSTON SHIP CHANNEL. WE SHALL CONTINUE W/EXERCISE CAUTION
FOR BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS FOR TONIGHT.

37/41/47

.HGX...TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL OF SE TX TIL 4 PM.
       SCEC ALL MARINE AREAS.

CLL BB 045/068 045/071 041 400
IAH BB 050/068 047/071 048 400
GLS BB 054/065 055/068 054 500

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1135 AM CST FRI FEB 21 2003

...THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST COMBINED WITH
A WARM FRONT PUSHING INLAND AND DEEP MOISTURE ALREADY IN PLACE WILL
PROVIDE A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGHT THE EVENING HOURS.

SOME LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS RECEIVED
4 TO 6 INCHES OF RAINFALL YESTERDAY. SOME ROAD FLOODING IS ONGOING
AND CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE ON THE RISE. ANOTHER 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED 4 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OCCUR. MOTORISTS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR STANDING
WATER ON ROADS AND ARE UNGED NOT TO DRIVE ACROSS THEM.

IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WILL FAVOR THE POSSIBILITY
OF A FEW STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

REMEMBER...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. CHECK OVER YOUR PREPAREDNESS
REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK ACTION IF
FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END THIS EVENING AS THE STORM SYSTEM
PASSES EAST OF THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.