Flash Flood Warning 10, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
950 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

HURRICANE CLAUDETTE NEAR THE COAST W/MATAGORDA GETTING THE BRUNT OF
THE FURY. AS PER LATEST TPC ADVISORY...WE SHALL ADJUST 1ST PERIOD
WINDS FOR SOUTHERN ZONES.

37/42/35/34/30

.HGX...HURRICANE WARNING COASTAL COUNTIES PLUS HARRIS AND
       LIBERTY.
       INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING FOR
       WHARTON...COLORADO...AUSTIN...WALLER...AND FORT BEND COUNTIES.
       FLOOD WATCH ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10.
       SMALL CRAFT SHOULD STAY IN PORT.
       TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT TIL 1 PM FOR COASTAL AND ADJACENT
       COUNTIES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SPC HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1 PM.  CURRENT RADAR
INDICATES A POSSIBLE TORNADO ASSOCIATED WITH A RAIN BAND MOVING INTO
HIGH ISLAND AND CHAMBERS COUNTY.  CAN EXPECT THIS TYPE OF ACTIVITY
INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FAVORED NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE STORM
MOVES ACROSS THE TWO TIER OF COUNTIES ALONG THE COAST.

PREV DISC...
HAVE ALREADY UPDATE THE FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF SE TX.  HURRICANE CLAUDETTE HAS BEEN MOVING ALMOST DUE WEST
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS.  RAIN BANDS HAVE MOVED ONTO THE COASTAL
COUNTIES WITH A HEAVIER BAND CURRENTLY JUST OFF THE COAST.  THE MAIN
CONCERNS FOR THIS MORNING INCLUDE HIGH WINDS...HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES.  AS CLAUDETTE GETS CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE
SYSTEM WILL MORE AND MORE BE INFLUENCED BY THE 200 AND 300 MB TROUGH
LOCATED JUST INLAND ACROSS THE ENTIRE TX COASTAL PLAIN.

THE COMBINATION OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND THE CURRENT STORM
MOVEMENT IN RELATION TO THE COAST INDICATES THAT THE STORM CENTER MAY
ACTUALLY TRY TO GO WEST-SOUTHWEST BEFORE MAKING LANDFALL.  THE MASS OF
RAIN BANDS JUST OFF THE COAST SHOULD ALSO MOVE INLAND AND AFFECT THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  FOR NOW THE RAINFALL POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE 2 TO 6
INCHES WITH ISOLATED 10 INCHES...THOUGH WITH THE SYSTEM SPEEDING UP
THESE MAY BE ON THE HIGH SIDE.  FAVORED AREAS FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES
LOOK TO BE ACROSS CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...FORT
BEND...MATAGORDA...AND JACKSON COUNTIES.  EXPECTING THE WORST WINDS
OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGHOUT THE MORNING...THEN INTO THE FAR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE STORM CENTER GETS
ONSHORE.

AFTER CLAUDETTE TODAY THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS ACROSS THE
PLAINS.  BY THIS WEEKEND THE ECMWF AND GFS INDICATE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS SE TX.  FOR THAT CASE WILL GO WITH SCATTERED POPS STARTING
SATURDAY.  UNTIL THEN THE RIDGE SHOULD SUPPRESS RAINFALL TO ISOLATED
AT BEST.

PL-40
45
38/43/30

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-152100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
729 AM CDT TUE JUL 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM HIGH ISLAND TO BAFFIN BAY...
THE WARNING AREA INCLUDES THE COUNTIES OF CHAMBERS...HARRIS...
GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...LIBERTY...MATAGORDA...AND JACKSON COUNTIES.

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF SOUTHEAST
TEXAS...

...AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR AUSTIN...
COLORADO...WHARTON...AND FORT BEND COUNTIES...

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM FOR BRAZORIA...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...HARRIS...LIBERTY...AND
WHARTON COUNTIES...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
HURRICANE CLAUDETTE WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR MATAGORDA BAY BETWEEN 9 AM
AND 3 PM TODAY.  ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE COASTAL
AREAS AS THE STORM MAKES LANDFALL.  OTHERWISE...REFER TO THE HURRICANE
LOCAL STATEMENT...SATHLSHOU...WMO HEADER WTUS84 KHGX.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TODAY.  SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.