Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 15, 2003Graham County, Swain County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 6:41 PM EDT for Graham County, Swain County, North Carolina. It was in force for 79 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 6:41 PM EDT (22:41 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2003, 8:00 PM EDT
In force: 79 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Graham County, NC, Swain County, NC

The radar

The Knoxville radar (KMRX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 15, 4:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Peachtre/Fal Fld, GA (KFFC), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 241 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 653 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 39 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 136 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 66 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS52 KGSP 152241
SVRGSP
NCC075-173-160000-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
640 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SWAIN COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA
  GRAHAM COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 800 PM EDT

* AT 639 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF ROBBINSVILLE...OR ABOUT OVER
  TAPOCO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

  ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL MOVE EAST AT 25 MPH ACROSS THE    
  NORTHEASTERN PART OF SWAIN COUNTY. THIS STORM WILL REMAIN OVER     
  REMOTE AREAS OF THE COUNTY...BUT COULD EVENTUALLY MOVE INTO        
  HAYWOOD COUNTY.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SANTEETLAH AT 645 PM EDT.
  FONTANA VILLAGE AT 650 PM EDT.
  ROBBINSVILLE AT 655 PM EDT.
  STECOAH AT 710 PM EDT.
  ALMOND AT 725 PM EDT.

PEOPLE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM SHOULD BE ALERT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN CAN OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 3557 8368 3554 8381 3545 8398 3536 8403
          3525 8379 3532 8333 3546 8334

$$

MOORE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 4:20 PM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 4:20 PM EDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

UPDATE-

ZFP UPDATED TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH INFORMATION UNTIL 10 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST TSTM CVRG THIS
EVENING ACRS MY NC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE SUPPORTING
S/WVS. LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPE VALUES APRCHG 2000 J/KG
ACRS WRN NC...AND COMBINED WITH SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS...MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LVL FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 35-40 KTS...ALL AIDED BY THIS AREA COMING UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 105KT 250 MB JET...SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ATTM...PLAN ON EVENING POPS OF SCATTERED 50 CVRG FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER AND CHC 30 FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2. WILL KEEP CHCS GOING THRU
MIDNIGHT UNTIL LARGE SCALE STABILIZATION OCCURS AND LIFT FROM
WAVE OVER KY/TN SHIFTS EAST OF CWFA.

CWFA TO COME UNDER A BROAD AND DEEP...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WSW FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC FRONT...WHICH IS APRCHG FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...SAGS INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO BE PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED...BUT AS SOME DEEPER RH CREEPS
NORTHWARD BACK INTO AREA...AND THE UPGLIDE FLOW INCREASES SOME...
HAVE GONE WITH 30 POP FRIDAY NIGHT...UP FROM SILENT 20 POP DURING
THE DAY. CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION SATURDAY STILL ON TRACK WITH FLOW
AND MOISTURE INCREASING RESPECTIVELY AS LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS
TO BE FLOATING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ROUGHLY LEADING TOWARD SYNOPTIC SOLUTION OF
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP CAD EVENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWFA SUN-TUE.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...HANDLING OF APRCHG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
EVEN LESS CERTAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PCPN CVRG
ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS JUNCTURE PREFER TO FAVOR A WETTER AND STABLE
SOLUTION THIS PERIOD...BUT IT GENERALLY SHAKES OUT TO JUST CHC POPS
EACH DAY. FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...STILL ON TRACK FOR A SCOURING
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
DRY DAY 7.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
AND   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
CLT   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
HKY   58  81  60  74 /  50  20  30  30
AVL   56  78  58  71 /  40  20  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 6:03 AM EDT, 12 hours 38 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS MORNING...BUT REDEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
IF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVES ENOUGH SUN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE MORNING SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG...OR EVEN
SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SEE
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR OFFICE...PRODUCT PIL
CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE DETAILED LOCALIZED INFORMATION ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER GROUPS
ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH LATEST CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
FOR POTENTIAL NET ACTIVATION.

BURRUS

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 15, 5:44 PM EDT, 57 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
544 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

520 PM     2 N HICKORY               NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   CATAWBA                        REPORT FROM AMATEUR RADIO
                                          NET

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 5:58 PM EDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
558 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

545 PM     FAIRVIEW                  NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   11 SE ASHEVILLE                GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL
                                          REPORTED IN FAIRVIEW

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 6:06 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
606 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

545 PM     7 E FAIRVIEW              NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   BUNCOMBE                       SPOTTER REPORTED HAIL UP
                                          TO GOLF BALL SIZE
                                          COVERING GROUND.

Local storm report, May 15, 6:09 PM EDT, 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
609 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

600 PM     HILDEBRAN                 NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   BURKE                          FROM COUNTY COMMS CENTER

SVRGSP

Local storm report, May 15, 6:25 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
625 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

615 PM     LAKE LURE                 NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   RUTHERFORD                     LAKE LURE POLICE REPORTED
                                          NUMEROUS VEHICLES DAMAGED

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 6:37 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
637 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

630 PM     3 W LINCOLNTON            NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   LINCOLN                        REPORTED BY SKYWARN
                                          SPOTTER

DICARLO

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 3:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Madison	43 min
May 15, 3:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Henderson	50 min
May 15, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Caldwell	44 min
May 15, 3:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mitchell	38 min
May 15, 4:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Avery	49 min
May 15, 4:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	McDowell	48 min
May 15, 4:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Alexander, Caldwell, Iredell	42 min
May 15, 4:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Burke	53 min
May 15, 4:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe	63 min
May 15, 5:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Catawba	53 min
May 15, 5:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Alexander	45 min
May 15, 5:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Burke	56 min
May 15, 5:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Rowan	54 min
May 15, 5:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Henderson	47 min
May 15, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Rutherford	62 min
May 15, 6:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Catawba, Lincoln	65 min
May 15, 6:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Polk	61 min
May 15, 6:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Gaston	46 min
May 15, 7:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Iredell	49 min
May 15, 7:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mecklenburg	61 min
May 15, 7:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Gaston	29 min
May 15, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Macon	64 min
May 15, 7:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Madison	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.