Alert archive / North Carolina / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 110, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

May 15, 2003Alexander County, Caldwell County, Iredell County, North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 15, 2003, 4:33 PM EDT for Alexander County, Caldwell County, Iredell County, North Carolina. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 15, 2003, 4:33 PM EDT (20:33 UTC)
Expired: May 15, 2003, 5:15 PM EDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Alexander County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Iredell County, NC

The radar

The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 143 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:32 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
May 15, 4:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 8.6 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 900 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 15 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

534 
WUUS52 KGSP 152033
SVRGSP
NCC003-027-097-152115-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
433 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  EASTERN CALDWELL COUNTY IN WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA   
  NORTHERN IREDELL COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA          
  ALEXANDER COUNTY IN THE PIEDMONT OF NORTH CAROLINA

* UNTIL 515 PM EDT

* AT 431 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF LENOIR...OR ABOUT 3 MILES        
  SOUTHWEST OF KINGS CREEK...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. ANOTHER SEVERE   
  STORM WAS LOCATED 10 MILES NORTHEAST OF TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING EAST 
  AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELLENDALE AT 450 PM EDT.
  TAYLORSVILLE AT 500 PM EDT.
  MILLERSVILLE AT 505 PM EDT.
  HIDDENITE AT 510 PM EDT.
  STONY POINT AT 515 PM EDT. 

LOVE VALLEY AND UNION GROVE ARE ALSO IN THE PATH OF ONE OF THESE 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. 

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS IS LIKELY WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. 
ALTHOUGH LARGE HAIL IS THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM...BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR.

LAT...LON 3608 8151 3590 8155 3580 8105 3601 8085
          3605 8088

$$

LANE

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 15, 4:20 PM EDT, 13 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 4:20 PM EDT, 13 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
420 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

UPDATE-

ZFP UPDATED TO INCLUDE SVR TSTM WATCH INFORMATION UNTIL 10 PM.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION -

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST TSTM CVRG THIS
EVENING ACRS MY NC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE SUPPORTING
S/WVS. LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPE VALUES APRCHG 2000 J/KG
ACRS WRN NC...AND COMBINED WITH SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS...MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LVL FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 35-40 KTS...ALL AIDED BY THIS AREA COMING UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 105KT 250 MB JET...SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ATTM...PLAN ON EVENING POPS OF SCATTERED 50 CVRG FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER AND CHC 30 FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2. WILL KEEP CHCS GOING THRU
MIDNIGHT UNTIL LARGE SCALE STABILIZATION OCCURS AND LIFT FROM
WAVE OVER KY/TN SHIFTS EAST OF CWFA.

CWFA TO COME UNDER A BROAD AND DEEP...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WSW FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC FRONT...WHICH IS APRCHG FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...SAGS INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO BE PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED...BUT AS SOME DEEPER RH CREEPS
NORTHWARD BACK INTO AREA...AND THE UPGLIDE FLOW INCREASES SOME...
HAVE GONE WITH 30 POP FRIDAY NIGHT...UP FROM SILENT 20 POP DURING
THE DAY. CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION SATURDAY STILL ON TRACK WITH FLOW
AND MOISTURE INCREASING RESPECTIVELY AS LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS
TO BE FLOATING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ROUGHLY LEADING TOWARD SYNOPTIC SOLUTION OF
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP CAD EVENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWFA SUN-TUE.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...HANDLING OF APRCHG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
EVEN LESS CERTAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PCPN CVRG
ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS JUNCTURE PREFER TO FAVOR A WETTER AND STABLE
SOLUTION THIS PERIOD...BUT IT GENERALLY SHAKES OUT TO JUST CHC POPS
EACH DAY. FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...STILL ON TRACK FOR A SCOURING
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
DRY DAY 7.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
AND   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
CLT   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
HKY   58  81  60  74 /  50  20  30  30
AVL   56  78  58  71 /  40  20  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 6:03 AM EDT, 10 hours 30 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS MORNING...BUT REDEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
IF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVES ENOUGH SUN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE MORNING SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG...OR EVEN
SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SEE
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR OFFICE...PRODUCT PIL
CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE DETAILED LOCALIZED INFORMATION ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER GROUPS
ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH LATEST CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
FOR POTENTIAL NET ACTIVATION.

BURRUS

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 15, 11:41 AM EDT, 4 hours 52 minutes before

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-152000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP...ALLOWING SOME LATE DAY HEATING TO OCCUR.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL PRODUCE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM...WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

LANE

Local storm report, May 15, 3:45 PM EDT, 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

317 PM     MARSHALL                  NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MADISON                        MADISON COUNTY 911 CENTER
                                          REPORTED HAIL SIZED FROM
                                          A QUARTER TO GOLFBALL.

OUTLAW

Local storm report, May 15, 3:58 PM EDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
358 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

350 PM     BAKERSVILLE               NC   .75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MITCHELL                       REPORTED BY COUNTY 911.

NED

Local storm report, May 15, 4:02 PM EDT, 31 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
402 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

340 PM     WEAVERVILLE               NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   BUNCOMBE                       SECOND HAND REPORT FROM
                                          NCDC

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 4:17 PM EDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
417 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

410 PM     LEDGER                    NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MITCHELL                       REPORTED BY MITCHELL
                                          COUNTY COMMUNICATIONS
                                          CENTER

RBN

Local storm report, May 15, 4:29 PM EDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
429 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

425 PM     2 W OLD FORT              NC   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MCDOWELL                       QUARTER SIZE HAIL ALONG
                                          INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN OLD
                                          FORT AND BLACK MOUNTAIN.
                                          HAD TRAFFIC STOPPED.

RBN

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 15, 3:17 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Madison	43 min
May 15, 3:40 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Henderson	50 min
May 15, 3:46 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Caldwell	44 min
May 15, 3:52 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mitchell	38 min
May 15, 4:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Avery	49 min
May 15, 4:27 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	McDowell	48 min
May 15, 4:37 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Burke	53 min
May 15, 4:57 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe	63 min
May 15, 5:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Catawba	53 min
May 15, 5:15 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Alexander	45 min
May 15, 5:34 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Burke	56 min
May 15, 5:36 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Rowan	54 min
May 15, 5:43 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Henderson	47 min
May 15, 5:58 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Buncombe, Rutherford	62 min
May 15, 6:10 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Catawba, Lincoln	65 min
May 15, 6:29 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Polk	61 min
May 15, 6:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Graham, Swain	79 min
May 15, 6:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Gaston	46 min
May 15, 7:11 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Iredell	49 min
May 15, 7:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Mecklenburg	61 min
May 15, 7:31 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Gaston	29 min
May 15, 7:41 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Macon	64 min
May 15, 7:49 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GSP	Madison	56 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Carolina, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.