Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
259 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A COUPLE OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES
FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH THE BEST TSTM CVRG THIS
EVENING ACRS MY NC ZONES...CLOSER TO THE TRACKS OF THE SUPPORTING
S/WVS. LATEST LAPS DATA INDICATES CAPE VALUES APRCHG 2000 J/KG
ACRS WRN NC...AND COMBINED WITH SOME LARGE SCALE LIFT FROM
AFOREMENTIONED S/WVS...MODERATE CYCLONIC MID-LVL FLOW ON THE
ORDER OF 35-40 KTS...ALL AIDED BY THIS AREA COMING UNDER THE
LEFT EXIT REGION OF 105KT 250 MB JET...SVR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
ATTM...PLAN ON EVENING POPS OF SCATTERED 50 CVRG FOR THE NORTHERN
TIER AND CHC 30 FOR THE SOUTHERN 1/2. WILL KEEP CHCS GOING THRU
MIDNIGHT UNTIL LARGE SCALE STABILIZATION OCCURS AND LIFT FROM
WAVE OVER KY/TN SHIFTS EAST OF CWFA.

CWFA TO COME UNDER A BROAD AND DEEP...BUT GRADUALLY WEAKENING
WSW FLOW FRIDAY AND FRIDAY AS SFC FRONT...WHICH IS APRCHG FROM
THE NW TONIGHT...SAGS INTO THE AREA. OVERALL...ATMOSPHERE LOOKS
TO BE PRETTY WEAKLY FORCED...BUT AS SOME DEEPER RH CREEPS
NORTHWARD BACK INTO AREA...AND THE UPGLIDE FLOW INCREASES SOME...
HAVE GONE WITH 30 POP FRIDAY NIGHT...UP FROM SILENT 20 POP DURING
THE DAY. CHCS FOR DEEP CONVECTION SATURDAY STILL ON TRACK WITH FLOW
AND MOISTURE INCREASING RESPECTIVELY AS LLVL BAROCLINIC ZONE LOOKS
TO BE FLOATING ALONG OUR SOUTHERN TIER DURING THE DAY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ROUGHLY LEADING TOWARD SYNOPTIC SOLUTION OF
ATTEMPTING TO DEVELOP CAD EVENT SOUTHWARD INTO THE CWFA SUN-TUE.
EARLY IN THIS PERIOD...HANDLING OF APRCHG SOUTHERN STREAM ENERGY
EVEN LESS CERTAIN ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL PCPN CVRG
ACRS THE CWFA. AT THIS JUNCTURE PREFER TO FAVOR A WETTER AND STABLE
SOLUTION THIS PERIOD...BUT IT GENERALLY SHAKES OUT TO JUST CHC POPS
EACH DAY. FOR THE LATTER PERIODS...STILL ON TRACK FOR A SCOURING
COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY A
DRY DAY 7.

FCSTID = 55
GSP   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
AND   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
CLT   59  83  61  75 /  30  20  30  30
HKY   58  81  60  74 /  50  20  30  30
AVL   56  78  58  71 /  40  20  30  30

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
603 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END THIS MORNING...BUT REDEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED LATER TODAY AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.
IF THE FORECAST AREA RECEIVES ENOUGH SUN FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON ONCE THE MORNING SHOWERS HAVE ENDED...THE ATMOSPHERE
COULD BECOME UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT STRONG...OR EVEN
SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED ALL
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY. SEE
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FROM OUR OFFICE...PRODUCT PIL
CAESPSGSP...FOR MORE DETAILED LOCALIZED INFORMATION ON SEVERE
WEATHER POTENTIAL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON. SPOTTER GROUPS
ARE URGED TO STAY UP TO DATE WITH LATEST CURRENT FORECAST THINKING
FOR POTENTIAL NET ACTIVATION.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-152000-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1141 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA...

WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PORTIONS OF UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. AS THIS
SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL ALLOW WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR TO STEADILY INCREASE ACROSS THE
WESTERN CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS MAY DEVELOP...ALLOWING SOME LATE DAY HEATING TO OCCUR.
THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL PRODUCE THE GREATEST
INSTABILITY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES...COMBINED WITH A FAVORABLE POSITION OF THE JET
STREAM...WILL ALLOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. A FEW OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...PRODUCING
HAIL AS LARGE AS PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA OUTLET FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES CONCERNING THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

LANE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE SPARTANBURG SC
345 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

317 PM     MARSHALL                  NC   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/15/03   MADISON                        MADISON COUNTY 911 CENTER
                                          REPORTED HAIL SIZED FROM
                                          A QUARTER TO GOLFBALL.

OUTLAW