Severe Thunderstorm Warning 277, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
229 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

SFC MAP THIS AFTN MUCH LIKE YDA. INTENSE SFC LOW CNTR OVR WRN SD
W/TRAILING COLD FNT INTO NE CO AND SECONDARY WV IN REFLECTION OF
STG UPR TROF CROSSING DIVIDE ATTM. MID LVL DRY SLOT OVERTOPPING CWA
IN WAKE OF MORNING SW MOVING INTO MN ATTM.

FOREMOST SHRT TERM CONCERN CONTS W/SVR CONVN CHCS LT THIS AFTN AND
FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. TOR WATCH COMING SHORTLY. DESTABILIZATION
GREATLY HAMPERED SO FAR TKS TO GRUNGE SC CLD LYR BUT ERODING QUICKLY
ESP SW IN BTWN JET STREAKS. EMERGING JET STREAK EMANATING FM SE CO
AND DVLPG ACCAS FIELD NR KDEN/KAKR A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME. LACK OF
INHIBITION AND INCREASING LG SCALE UVV/S SHLD KEEP DISCRETE SUPERCELL
WINDOW SHRT W/PRIMARY EVENT TIED TO SURGING COLD FRONT AND LIKELY LG
LINEAR SEGMENT ALG IT. COULD BE QUITE A WIND EVENT AND NOT DOUBT A
TOR THREAT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR/LOW LFC/S AND DEEP BL MSTR. 0-1KM
BTR ATTM OVR ERN NE BUT SUSPECT LL FLW TO REALLY BACK AS CO WV AND
ASSOCD JET STREAK DUMBBELL OUT LTR THIS AFTN. AS SUCH...CAT POPS IN
ORDER OVERNIGHT.

FOR THU...HOLD OVER RISK OF MORE RAIN INVOF OF MID LVL TROF AND
KEPT POPS IN MOST OF DAY ACRS CWA...HWVR CLRG XPCD LT AS SYS PINCHES
SWD INTO SRN PLAINS AND LG SCALE SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS CWA BEHIND
CO WV. EWD EXTENT OF CLRG LINE BIT TRICKY ON FRI AS UPR LOW CLOSES
OFF OVR TX PANHANDLE WHICH MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON MAX TEMPS SE CWA
AND MORE SO ON SAT. CONTINUITY HERE LACKING AS UPSTREAM KICKER
DROPPING OUT OF SW CANADA NOW MUCH SLWR. GLARING CONSENSUS AT THIS
POINT IS TO KEEP UPR SYS STACKED TO OUR SW WHICH WOULD WRAP AT LEAST
MID LVL MSTR BACK INTO AREA AND WARRANT A SLGT POP IN ADV OF
SECONDARY COLD FRONT THEN. SLIP IN TIMING NECESSITATES SOME
ADJUSTMENT IN TEMPS SAT BUT OTHERWISE COOLING TREND ON TRACK THROUGH
SUN.

.GID...NONE.

T

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-111200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
717 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH TONIGHT.  TWO MAIN
AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE FIRST LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL CITY IN MERRICK COUNTY NEBRASKA
TO PHILLIPSBURG IN PHILLIPS COUNTY KANSAS...WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE
EAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THIS LINE OF
STORMS ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING A SECOND LINE
OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO EVOLVE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF
THE OUTLOOK AREA. THIS LINE WILL PUSH RAPIDLY EAST ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS BEFORE EXITING THE AREA
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND SOME
FLASH FLOODING WILL POSE THE BIGGEST THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER ALONG THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY...
MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 14...HOWEVER CHANCES DIMINISH BEHIND THE FRONT
BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. DRY AND COOL WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BEFORE A SLOW WARMING TREND NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH THE EVENING AND EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS ALL OF THE OUTLOOK AREA.

AWJ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
631 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0625 PM    DAVENPORT                 NE   1 INCH HAIL
09/10/03   THAYER                         REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
641 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    1 S OSBORNE               KS   .75 INCH HAIL
09/10/03   OSBORNE                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
643 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    1 S OSBORNE               KS   60 MPH TSTM GUST
09/10/03   OSBORNE                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
655 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0647 PM    2 W WEBBER                KS   1.75 INCH HAIL
09/10/03   JEWELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
658 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0652 PM    EDGAR                     NE   .88 INCH HAIL
09/10/03   CLAY                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
706 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0705 PM    1 W OSBORNE               KS   .75 INCH HAIL
09/10/03   OSBORNE