Severe Thunderstorm Warning 254, NWS Hastings, NE

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
106 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EJECTING LEAD TROUGH THIS AFTN CLRG
THINGS OUT FOR A TIME BUT REDVLPG SC WITHIN MOIST BL TOUGH TO SHAKE.
HWVR ENSUING DESTABILIZATION INVOF SFC FNTL ZONE OVR NW KS/SW NE
UNDERNEATH STEEP EML WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR INCIPIENT
SVR CONVN INITIATION POSSIBILITY THIS EVE.

PROBLEMS THIS FCST CYCLE ARE NAMELY GROWING RAIN POTENTIAL AND SVR
THREAT WED AND TEMPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VRY CONSISTENT W/UPCOMING EVOLUTION AND EJECTION OF
DYNAMIC WRN TROUGH. DETAILS ACCENTUATED BY MULTIPLE SW/S
ACTING ON GOOD LL MSTR PLUME IN PLACE AND ATTENDANT NRLY STATIONARY
FNTL ZONE. XPC RENEWED CONV DVLPMNT TO TAKE PLACE LT THIS AFTN/EVE
INVOF OF LEE SIDE TROF AND ALG NOSE OF RESURGING LLJ AS NXT INTENSE
UPSTREAM SW OVR NE AZ EJECTS OUT...SIMILAR TO OVERNIGHT DVLPMNT.
HWVR SVR THREAT MINIMIZED GIVEN PROGGED TIMING. ON WED...WRN TROF
EDGES EVER CLOSER W/SFC BNDRY REMAINING NRLY STATIONARY. RENEWED SFC
DVLPMNT XPCD AGAIN BY AFTN ALG SFC BNDRY AS YET ANOTHER SW TROF KICKS
OUT. SVR THREAT MUCH BTR WED AFTN/EVE BUT CONTINGENT UPON LOSS OF
MORNING CLD DEBRIS AND SUFFICIENT AFTN DESTABILIZATION W/SHEAR
PROFILES ABUNDANTLY FVRBL...COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF THINGS PAN OUT.
QPF SOLUTIONS ARE OPTIMISTIC AND RIGHTLY SO BUT SHLD POSE LTL PROBLEM
GIVEN ANTECEDENT BONE DRY SOIL MSTR CONDITIONS. STILL A SHOWER RISK
ON THU INVOF OF UPPER LOW AND MAY NEED SOME EXTENSION TO POPS THEN
BUT CLRG OUT AFT THAT ON FRI. WELCOME RAINFALL TO SAY THE LEAST...
SHLD BE BEST RAINFALL AROUND HERE SINCE MID MAY FOR MOST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS A TOSS W/IMPENDING RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.
BEST RECOURSE IT SEEMS AT THIS POINT IS TO HEDGE COOLER W/GUIDANCE
SPREADS NR 10 DEGREES WED/THU.

BEYOND THAT...COOL WX TO STICK ARND INTO NXT WEEK W/RESIDUAL MEAN
TROUGH CNTRL US AND MASSIVE CANUCK SFC RIDGE BLDG SWD.

.GID...NONE.

T

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO AT THE END
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AS SEEN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL
ALSO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE REGION ALONG A LINE FROM
STOCKTON KANSAS TO NEAR KEARNEY NEBRASKA...THEN TO ABOUT COLUMBUS...
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

ONCE THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS PASSES...MORE DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  DRY AND RATHER COOL
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR RAPID DEPLOYMENT IF SEVERE APPROACHES THEIR AREA.

10/FAY/MORITZ