Alert archive / Nebraska / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 255, NWS Hastings, NE

September 9, 2003Buffalo County, Dawson County, Phelps County, Nebraska

NWS Hastings, NE issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 9, 2003, 8:30 PM CDT for Buffalo County, Dawson County, Phelps County, Nebraska. It was in force for 60 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 9, 2003, 8:30 PM CDT (01:30 UTC)
Expired: Sep 9, 2003, 9:30 PM CDT
In force: 60 min
Issued by: NWS Hastings, NE
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Buffalo County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Phelps County, NE

The radar

The Grand Island radar (KUEX), 82 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Sep 9, 5:05 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

N. Platte/Lee Bi, NE (KLBF), launched 00:00Z, 1.5 hours before the alert went out and 130 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1235 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -100 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 847 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 65 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 94 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.2
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KGID 100130 RRA
SVRGID
NEC047-137-100230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
829 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA
  PHELPS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 825 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF BERTRAND TO
  10 MILES WEST OF BERTRAND...OR FROM 14 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLDREGE
  TO 14 MILES SOUTH OF LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTH AT 25 MPH.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  FARNAM AT 840 PM CDT...
  OVERTON AT 845 PM CDT...
  LEXINGTON AT 850 PM CDT...
  WILLOW ISLAND AT 910 PM CDT...
  GOTHENBURG AT 920 PM CDT...

PEOPLE IN DAWSON AND NORTHERN PHELPS COUNTIES SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF NICKLES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

LAT...LON 4052 9962 4070 9967 4070 10021 4103 10022
          4104 9943 4068 9941 4065 9931 4044 9927
$$
10

1 follow-up statement

000 
WUUS53 KGID 100130
SVRGID
NEC019-100230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
830 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  BUFFALO COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA

* UNTIL 930 PM CDT

* AT 825 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF PLEASANTON...OR ABOUT 10 MILES
  NORTH OF KEARNEY...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM WILL MOVE    
  NORTH ALONG HIGHWAY 10. 


* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM INCLUDE...
  PLEASANTON...
  POOLE...
  RAVENNA...

PEOPLE IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BUFFALO COUNTY SHOULD SEEK SHELTER IN 
A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IS LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF PENNIES.

A TORNADO WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO WARNING.

LAT...LON 4080 9913 4080 9921 4104 9920 4104 9890
          4082 9898 4078 9905
$$
NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hastings, NE wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 9, 1:06 PM CDT, 7 hours 24 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 9, 1:06 PM CDT, 7 hours 24 minutes before

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
106 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

STRONG SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF EJECTING LEAD TROUGH THIS AFTN CLRG
THINGS OUT FOR A TIME BUT REDVLPG SC WITHIN MOIST BL TOUGH TO SHAKE.
HWVR ENSUING DESTABILIZATION INVOF SFC FNTL ZONE OVR NW KS/SW NE
UNDERNEATH STEEP EML WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY FOR INCIPIENT
SVR CONVN INITIATION POSSIBILITY THIS EVE.

PROBLEMS THIS FCST CYCLE ARE NAMELY GROWING RAIN POTENTIAL AND SVR
THREAT WED AND TEMPS.

MODEL SOLUTIONS VRY CONSISTENT W/UPCOMING EVOLUTION AND EJECTION OF
DYNAMIC WRN TROUGH. DETAILS ACCENTUATED BY MULTIPLE SW/S
ACTING ON GOOD LL MSTR PLUME IN PLACE AND ATTENDANT NRLY STATIONARY
FNTL ZONE. XPC RENEWED CONV DVLPMNT TO TAKE PLACE LT THIS AFTN/EVE
INVOF OF LEE SIDE TROF AND ALG NOSE OF RESURGING LLJ AS NXT INTENSE
UPSTREAM SW OVR NE AZ EJECTS OUT...SIMILAR TO OVERNIGHT DVLPMNT.
HWVR SVR THREAT MINIMIZED GIVEN PROGGED TIMING. ON WED...WRN TROF
EDGES EVER CLOSER W/SFC BNDRY REMAINING NRLY STATIONARY. RENEWED SFC
DVLPMNT XPCD AGAIN BY AFTN ALG SFC BNDRY AS YET ANOTHER SW TROF KICKS
OUT. SVR THREAT MUCH BTR WED AFTN/EVE BUT CONTINGENT UPON LOSS OF
MORNING CLD DEBRIS AND SUFFICIENT AFTN DESTABILIZATION W/SHEAR
PROFILES ABUNDANTLY FVRBL...COULD BE SIGNIFICANT IF THINGS PAN OUT.
QPF SOLUTIONS ARE OPTIMISTIC AND RIGHTLY SO BUT SHLD POSE LTL PROBLEM
GIVEN ANTECEDENT BONE DRY SOIL MSTR CONDITIONS. STILL A SHOWER RISK
ON THU INVOF OF UPPER LOW AND MAY NEED SOME EXTENSION TO POPS THEN
BUT CLRG OUT AFT THAT ON FRI. WELCOME RAINFALL TO SAY THE LEAST...
SHLD BE BEST RAINFALL AROUND HERE SINCE MID MAY FOR MOST.

OTHERWISE...TEMPS A TOSS W/IMPENDING RAINFALL AND EXTENSIVE CLD CVR.
BEST RECOURSE IT SEEMS AT THIS POINT IS TO HEDGE COOLER W/GUIDANCE
SPREADS NR 10 DEGREES WED/THU.

BEYOND THAT...COOL WX TO STICK ARND INTO NXT WEEK W/RESIDUAL MEAN
TROUGH CNTRL US AND MASSIVE CANUCK SFC RIDGE BLDG SWD.

.GID...NONE.

T

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 9, 5:08 PM CDT, 3 hours 22 minutes before

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED TYPO AT THE END
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
508 PM CDT TUE SEP 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND EVEN A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE COMBINATION OF SEVERAL WEATHER FEATURES WILL ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TONIGHT. A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
STRETCH ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PUMP
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...AS SEEN BY SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN
THE 60S. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR ALOFT WILL
ALSO AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE REGION ALONG A LINE FROM
STOCKTON KANSAS TO NEAR KEARNEY NEBRASKA...THEN TO ABOUT COLUMBUS...
WILL BE THE MOST FAVORED AREA FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH MID
EVENING.

ONCE THIS ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS PASSES...MORE DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE ENHANCED FURTHER WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT
ADVANCE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA.  A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH WIND AND HAIL THE PRIMARY
HAZARD...ALTHOUGH WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TORNADOS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY...HOWEVER THE SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT DIMINISHES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.  DRY AND RATHER COOL
WEATHER IS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY INTO NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING...AND SHOULD BE PREPARED
FOR RAPID DEPLOYMENT IF SEVERE APPROACHES THEIR AREA.

10/FAY/MORITZ

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:55 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0645 PM    13 N FUNK                 NE   1.25 INCH HAIL
09/09/03   PHELPS                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

Local storm report, Sep 9, 7:55 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
755 PM CDT TUE SEP 09 2003

CORRECTED FOR TIME

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 PM    13 N FUNK                 NE   1.25 INCH HAIL
09/09/03   PHELPS                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Hastings, NE issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 9, 7:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Buffalo, Kearney, Phelps	53 min
Sep 9, 8:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Sherman	62 min
Sep 10, 4:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Thayer	38 min
Sep 10, 5:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Franklin	47 min
Sep 10, 5:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Clay, Fillmore, Nuckolls	49 min
Sep 10, 6:03 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Thayer	42 min
Sep 10, 6:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Webster	60 min
Sep 10, 6:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Greeley, Howard, Sherman	55 min
Sep 10, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Nuckolls	63 min
Sep 10, 6:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Fillmore	61 min
Sep 10, 6:41 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Clay	34 min
Sep 10, 6:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GID	Thayer	58 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Nebraska, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.