Severe Thunderstorm Warning 270, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED FOR AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
615 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

.AVIATION...
CLUSTER OF STORMS WITH GOOD LOW LVL CONVERGENCE NOTED OVER PARKER
COUNTY...MOVING INTO DFW TAF SITES THROUGH 13Z...WITH OTHER
DISSOLVING CLUSTER MOVING EWD THROUGH DALLAS COUNTY NEAR KDAL DURING
THIS SAME TIME. WILL CONTINUE CURRENT TEMPO THROUGH FOR VRB15G25KT
AND 4-5SM -TSRA...BUT CIGS REMAINING VFR. OTHERWISE...WILL CONTINUE
WITH OFF AND ON HIGH CLOUD CANOPY BY AFTN AS TSRA BLOW UPS OUT W/NW
OF N TX TRACON BY 22Z AND AFTER. BY THIS TIME...WILL BRING IN CB IN
TAF WITH BOUNDARIES AROUND...BUT MAIN GAME IN THE FORM OF MCS/
VRB25G45KT WINDS SHOULD COME DURING THE 03Z-12Z FRI TIME FRAME ONCE
AGAIN AND WILL HOLD THIS AS WELL.

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.PULIC UPDATE 538 AM CDT...
UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE POPS NC AND NE AS COMPLEX JUST KEEPS ON
COMING. REST OF PACKAGE LEFT ALONE ATTM.

.PUBLIC DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 410 AM...
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO LINGER ACROSS NW CWA EARLY THIS MORNING AS
JET ENERGY...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LLJ HAVE KEPT STORMS GOING
DESPITE ATMOSPHERE BEING ALREADY WORKED OVER. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY
TO CONTINUE WORKING E-SE THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS SO WILL NEED TO KEEP
SOME HIGH CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE N. OTHERWISE...LOOKS LIKE WE SHOULD
SEE ANOTHER DAY LIKE YESTERDAY WITH STRONG INSOLATION AND
INSTABILITY ALLOWING CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG WEST TEXAS DRY LINE
LATE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING. YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE WILL HELP
ENHANCE CONVECTION AND H25 100KT JET STREAK LINGERS ACROSS THE
REGION AS WELL. WITH CAPE NEAR 3000 J/KG AGAIN AND NOT THAT STRONG
OF A CAP...WILL MENTION SOME SEVERE TSRA ACROSS ALL OUR CWA TONIGHT.
COULD SEE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AGAIN...BUT FEEL BETTER CHANCE
OF HEAVIER RAINFALL WILL BE FRIDAY NIGHT WHEN STRONGER H5 WAVE WORKS
ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT FIRE SHOULD FORM INTO A MCS AND
CORFIDI VECTORS SUGGEST A GENERAL SE PROPAGATION INTO N TEXAS THE
NEXT TWO NIGHTS. THINK WE CAN HANDLE ONLY ONE MORE MCS ACROSS THE
NORTH AND POSSIBLY THE WEST BEFORE PROBLEMS COULD ARRIVE. THUS...WE
HAVE HIGHLIGHTED THIS IN THE HWO AND WE MAY ISSUE A ESF TO BETTER
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL THREAT.

NEW GFS CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A H5 CUT-OFF LOW WORKING INTO N TEXAS
WITH A WEAK COLD FRONT SAT NIGHT/SUN AM. GFS NOW BRINGS THE LOW
FURTHER SW AND KEEPS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N TEXAS FOR SEVERAL
DAYS. WITH GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY...WILL LOWER MAX TEMPS AGAIN
AND INCREASE POPS SUNDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

FCSTID =   80
DFW   94  74  93  74 /  30  40  30  50
ACT   94  75  94  75 /  30  20  30  40
PRX   91  71  90  72 /  50  50  30  50
DTO   93  74  92  73 /  50  40  30  50
TKI   92  74  92  73 /  50  40  30  50
DAL   94  74  93  75 /  30  40  30  40
TRL   92  74  93  74 /  30  40  30  40
CRS   94  75  94  75 /  30  30  30  40
TPL   95  75  95  76 /  30  20  30  30

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-122300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 AM CDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS TO
60 MPH AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH
TEXAS...MAINLY FROM SUNSET AND AFTER.

ANOTHER UPPER DISTURBANCE ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL MOVE
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS BY THIS EVENING. WITH SEVERAL BOUNDARIES IN
PLACE...AMPLE MOISTURE...AND INSTABILITY AROUND...A COMPLEX OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM OKLAHOMA AND WEST
TEXAS...INTO NORTH TEXAS ONCE AGAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT
TUESDAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION. SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND RIVER STEM FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS
WELL...FRIDAY NIGHT AND THIS WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY AREAS FROM
INTERSTATE 20 TO THE RED RIVER WHERE SOILS ARE MORE SATURATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...MAINLY TONIGHT OVER ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS.

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