Severe Thunderstorm Warning 251, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO ADD AVIATION DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
625 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

...AVIATION DISCUSSION...
COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST UNFOLDING FOR THIS EVENING...AS SVR
TSRA CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. WILL NOT MAKE
ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO CURRENT TAF PACKAGE...WITH STORMS POSSIBLY
AFFECTING BOTH DFW AND WACO AREA AIRPORTS AFTER 12/02Z. MAIN SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS THIS EVENING WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WINDS. AWW PRODUCTS WILL BE ISSUED IF NECESSARY. WILL
DIMINISH TSRA CHANCES BETWEEN 12/06Z-12/10Z...WITH A RETURN TO
STRONGER SOUTH FLOW AND SCT DECK AROUND 5 KFT BY LATE MORNING.

65/DD

...PREVIOUS PUBLIC DISCUSSION...
TO CONFUSE THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE...18Z SOUNDING HAS STRENGTHENED THE
18Z CAP AT 850 MB...AND LOW AND MID LEVEL WINDS HAVE DROPPED TO 15
TO 20 KT.  CAPES AND INSTABILITIES REMAIN VERY HIGH...SO STILL THINK
STORMS WILL DEVELOP...BUT MAYBE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT.  WILL LEAVE IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS STORM MOVEMENT WILL
NOT BE OVER 15-20 KTS DUE TO THESE WEAK WIND FIELDS.  BEST CHANCE OF
RAIN NOW LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY AS
STRONGER SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.   VERY
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS NORTH TEXAS WITH SFC
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS.

FCSTID =   59
DFW   76  93  76  93 /  40  30  40  30
ACT   76  93  76  94 /  20  30  20  30
PRX   72  90  71  90 /  50  40  50  30
DTO   73  92  72  92 /  50  30  40  30
TKI   73  91  72  92 /  50  30  40  30
DAL   75  93  74  93 /  40  30  40  30
TRL   74  91  73  93 /  40  30  40  30
CRS   75  93  74  94 /  30  30  30  30
TPL   76  94  75  95 /  20  30  20  30

.FWD...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
345 PM CDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER NORTH TEXAS
TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST CHANCES GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS. THERE
IS ALSO THE THREAT OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO DURING THE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY
AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING WEST OF A
LAMPASAS...GAINESVILLE LINE...AND IN THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION
LATER TONIGHT.

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