Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

CLUSTER OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE METROPLEX. MAIN FOCUS NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MOISTURE POOLED NEAR AND ALONG OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AID ORGANIZATION.

SURFACE BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR KCDS TO NEAR KSHV THIS EVENING
WAS APPARENT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL JET ANALYZED FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 35 KTS NEAR AND WEST OF DFW WILL CONTINUE TO AID
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY(S).

UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30. SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR THESE ZONES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

NO CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS OF FORECAST.   /9

..DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SATURDAY..
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ENHANCED
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SET UP.  MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEAR THE RED RIVER.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WARRANT THE MENTION OF SOME HEAVY RAIN.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE.  HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN.  HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVERNIGHT COULD GREATLY
IMPACT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ON SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

AFTER A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW 90S BY MID WEEK.

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED FOR EVENING TRENDS...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1157 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THE
NIGHT FOR MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. THE RISK AREA IS GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GOLDTHWAITE TO CENTERVILLE.

STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS. STRONG INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ENHANCED LIFTING NEAR
A SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS CONTRIBUTING TO THE SEVERE WEATHER. THE
CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING ACROSS COLLIN...KAUFMAN...AND VAN
ZANDT COUNTIES WILL DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST AS COLD
OUTFLOW FROM THE STORMS PUSHES TO THE SOUTH.

THUNDERSTORMS WERE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP IN THE DALLAS AREA JUST
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN IN
THE DALLAS-FORT WORTH AREA THROUGH 1 AM.

A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHILDRESS AREA WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE EAST AND SOUTHEAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
ARE FAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO AFFECT WESTERN PARTS OF NORTH
TEXAS AFTER 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ALREADY ACTIVATED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS IN
ASSOCIATION WITH ONGOING THUNDERSTORMS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 430. SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS ACROSS THE REST OF NORTH
TEXAS SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST CONDITIONS AND BE PREPARED FOR
ACTIVATION EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

09/GP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1140 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1140 PM    1 W TERRELL               TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   KAUFMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1147 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1147 PM    1 E MCKINNEY              TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/24/03   COLLIN                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

1147 PM    1 E MCKINNEY              TX   ONE INCH HAIL
05/24/03   COLLIN                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1151 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1148 PM    TERRELL                   TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   KAUFMAN                        REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT
1148 PM    4 E ELMO                  TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   KAUFMAN                        REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1147 PM    WILLS POINT               TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   VAN ZANDT                      REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

1105 PM    WILLS POINT               TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   VAN ZANDT                      REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1212 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1212 AM    ROYCE CITY                TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/25/03   ROCKWALL                       REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT
                                          SUSTAINED 45 GUST 60

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1232 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1231 AM    GARLAND                   TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/25/03   DALLAS                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER
                                          ALSO MEASURED 3 INCH
                                          PER HOUR RAINFALL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
115 AM CDT SUN MAY 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0100 AM    MALAKOFF                  TX   60 MPH TSTM GUST
05/25/03   HENDERSON                      REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT