Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1106 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

CLUSTER OF STRONG AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTH TEXAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE METROPLEX. CONVECTION EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT WITH A GRADUAL SOUTHWESTWARD
PROGRESSION TOWARD THE METROPLEX. MAIN FOCUS NEXT FEW HOURS MAY BE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL ZONES WHERE MOISTURE POOLED NEAR AND ALONG OF
SURFACE BOUNDARY AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AID ORGANIZATION.

SURFACE BOUNDARY ANALYZED FROM NEAR KCDS TO NEAR KSHV THIS EVENING
WAS APPARENT FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT. LOW LEVEL JET ANALYZED FROM THE
SOUTH SOUTHWEST AT 35 KTS NEAR AND WEST OF DFW WILL CONTINUE TO AID
DEVELOPMENT ALONG SOUTHWESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY(S).

UPDATED ZONES TO INCREASE POPS SLIGHTLY IN AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE
30. SEVERE AND HEAVY RAIN WORDING LOOKS APPROPRIATE FOR THESE ZONES
FOR THE REST OF THE NIGHT.

NO CHANGES MADE TO LATER PERIODS OF FORECAST.   /9

..DISCUSSION ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT SATURDAY..
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH TEXAS THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND LARGE TROUGH LINGERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY.  EXPECT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS
WEAK WAVES IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW INTERACT WITH MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIR ALREADY IN PLACE.  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE ENHANCED
LATE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH AND A LOW
LEVEL JET SET UP.  MOST FAVORED AREA FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
NEAR THE RED RIVER.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS.  HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR STORM REDEVELOPMENT ON THE SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL
WARRANT THE MENTION OF SOME HEAVY RAIN.  A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH AMPLE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR IN PLACE.  HAIL AND WIND
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.  MODELS STILL INDICATE THAT THE FRONT WILL
LINGER OVER NORTH TEXAS ON SUNDAY...THEREFORE...THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN.  HOWEVER...THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN MCS OVERNIGHT COULD GREATLY
IMPACT THE DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ON SUNDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
MEMORIAL DAY WITH THE COLD FRONT PROGGED IN THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW REMAINING OVER THE REGION.  THUNDERSTORMS
CHANCES SHOULD DECREASE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD.

AFTER A WARM AND HUMID AFTERNOON...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S SUNDAY AND MONDAY.  TEMPS WILL REACH THE
LOW 90S BY MID WEEK.

.FWD...
TX...NONE.

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-251200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
330 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM COMANCHE...TO
CLEBURNE...AND CANTON. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE FROM LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL ALSO PRESENT A HAZARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH CHANCES WILL DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY BY MONDAY.
ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

65/DD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
932 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0915 PM    2.5 N TRENTON             TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   FANNIN                         REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1008 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0955 PM    POINT                     TX   2.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   RAINS                          REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1013 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1012 PM    POINT                     TX   STRUCK BY LIGHTNING
05/24/03   RAINS                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT. TWO PEOPLE
                                          INJURED BY LIGHTNING STRIKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1021 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1020 PM    FARMERSVILLE              TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   COLLIN                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

1018 PM    2 N CADDO MILLS           TX   1.00 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   HUNT                           REPORTED BY SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1030 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1030 PM    NEVADA                    TX   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/24/03   COLLIN                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1044 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1025 PM    FARMERSVILLE              TX   WIND DAMAGE
05/24/03   COLLIN                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT ROOF DAMAGE,
                                          TREES DOWN