Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 23, 2003, 4:22 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 53 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 23, 2003, 4:22 PM MST (23:22 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 23, 2003, 5:15 PM MST
- In force
- 53 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 11.4 hours before the alert went out and 116 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 220 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -110 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1449 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 232325 FFWFGZ AZC025-240115- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 422 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 615 PM MST * AT 410 PM MST...THE YAVAPAI COUNTY SHEFIFFS DEPARTMENT REPORTED FLASH FLOODING ALONG HIGHWAY 96 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 14 AND 18. THE HIGHWAY WAS CLOSED AS DEBRIS HAD COVERED THE ROADWAY. RADAR INDICATES THAT 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN FELL OVER THE KIRKLAND CREEK AND SANTA MARIA RIVER DRAINAGES BETWEEN YAVA AND BAGDAD BETWEEN 200 PM AND 330 PM MST. OTHER AREAS THAT RECEIVED VERY HEAVY RAIN SINCE 100 PM INCLUDE THE AREA BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 164 AND 169 ALONG HIGHWAY 93...AND ALSO THE JUNIPER MOUNTAINS INCLUDING SIMMONS AND CAMP WOOD. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3536 11332 3435 11332 3434 11247 3512 11264 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 23, 3:05 PM MST, 1 hour 17 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 23, 3:05 PM MST, 1 hour 17 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
305 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN ARIZONA. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. NUMEROUS SEVERE HAIL EVENTS AND HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE CWA...WITH MORE GARDEN VARIETY TO THE EAST. FFA ON
TARGET...AND WE WILL LET IT GO UNTIL 11 PM MST. MOISTURE REMAINS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE POSSIBLE AID OF AN EASTERLY WAVE NEAR
THE BIG BEND. HIGH POPS WILL CONTINUE. OUT PERIODS TUESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY STILL LOOK FAIRLY MOIST WITH LITTLE FLOW. STANDARD MONSOON
FORECAST WILL CONTINUE. PETERSON.
.FGZ...FFA YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES 10 AM MST UNTIL 11 PM MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SUN MON TUE TON SUN MON TUE
FLAGSTAFF 051/076 052/075 051/074 050 050 040 050 040 040
WINSLOW 063/087 065/085 064/084 030 030 030 030 020 030
PRESCOTT 062/081 063/081 062/080 050 050 040 050 040 040
PAGE 068/090 068/088 067/087 030 030 030 030 020 030
WINDOW ROCK 054/082 056/083 055/082 030 040 030 040 030 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 062/088 064/089 063/088 030 030 030 030 020 030
COTTONWOOD 070/092 071/092 070/091 040 040 030 040 030 030
GRAND CANYON 051/077 052/076 051/075 050 050 040 050 040 040
GREER 048/071 049/070 048/069 050 050 040 050 040 040
HEBER 053/081 054/080 053/079 050 050 040 050 040 040
JACOB LAKE 051/074 052/073 051/072 050 050 030 040 030 030
NAVAJO N.M. 059/082 061/083 060/082 040 040 040 040 030 040
PAYSON 063/085 064/085 063/084 030 040 040 030 020 030
SEDONA 068/089 069/089 068/088 040 040 030 040 030 030
SELIGMAN 055/084 056/084 055/083 050 050 040 050 040 040
SHOW LOW 059/081 060/080 059/079 050 050 040 050 040 040
ST. JOHNS 058/082 060/080 059/079 040 040 040 040 030 040
WUPATKI N.M. 064/089 066/087 065/086 040 040 040 040 030 040Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 23, 10:00 AM MST, 6 hours 22 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-240200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES FROM 10 AM MST UNTIL 11 PM MST TODAY... A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF...AND NEAR PRESCOTT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES WILL LEAD TO MORE HEAVY RAIN OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED AND FLOODED AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT. STRONGER STORMS OUTSIDE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED FLOW IN WASHES AND DRY CREEK BEDS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING FLASH FLOODING ARE MUCH LESS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAIN...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL SIZES OF AROUND AN INCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 5:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 23 min |
| Aug 22, 5:39 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 21 min |
| Aug 23, 11:15 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Aug 23, 12:07 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 23 min |
| Aug 23, 12:11 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 64 min |
| Aug 23, 12:32 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 18 min |
| Aug 23, 12:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 15 min |
| Aug 23, 1:09 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 66 min |
| Aug 23, 1:11 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 19 min |
| Aug 23, 1:25 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 65 min |
| Aug 23, 2:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 55 min |
| Aug 23, 2:30 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Aug 23, 3:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 27 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.