Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

August 23, 2003Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 23, 2003, 12:11 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Aug 23, 2003, 12:11 PM MST (19:11 UTC)
Expired: Aug 23, 2003, 1:15 PM MST
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yavapai County, AZ

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.2 hours before the alert went out and 114 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 220 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -110 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1449 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 16 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 44 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 231916
FFWFGZ
AZC025-232115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1211 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 215 PM MST

* AT 1209 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN OVER NORTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS
  LOCATED FROM 15 TO 20 MILES WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF SELIGMAN.
  THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. 

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...SECONDARY ROADS AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND 
ARROYOS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN 
STEEP TERRAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. DO 
NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN 
DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT 
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
FLAGSTAFF.

LAT...LON 3517 11287 3498 11292 3499 11313 3514 11324
          3525 11325

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 23, 9:45 AM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 23, 9:45 AM MST, 2 hours 26 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2003

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN ARIZONA. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...AND A HUGE EVENING
COMPLEX IN NORTHERN SONORA. MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION MORE HOMOGENEOUS
THAN FRIDAY...THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE MOISTENED UP CONSIDERABLY.
ONLY FEATURE TO KEY IN ON IS ONE LAST S/WV EJECTING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. MINOR JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAVES CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA IN MODEST DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DUE TO THE RAINFALL EVENTS FROM FRIDAY...WE WILL ISSUE
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE AID OF AN EASTERLY WAVE NEAR THE BIG BEND. HIGH POPS WILL
CONTINUE. PETERSON.

.FGZ...FFA YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES 10 AM MST UNTIL 11 PM MST.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   SUN     MON        TDY TON   SUN   MON
FLAGSTAFF        078/051 075/049 074/050      040 030 050 030 050 030
WINSLOW          092/064 089/063 088/064      040 030 040 020 040 020
PRESCOTT         084/060 081/060 080/061      040 030 050 030 050 030
PAGE             094/067 091/066 090/067      020 010 030 020 030 020
WINDOW ROCK      086/054 083/053 082/054      040 030 050 030 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 090/062 087/061 086/062      040 030 050 030 040 030
COTTONWOOD       098/068 095/068 094/069      030 020 030 020 040 030
GRAND CANYON     082/051 079/049 078/050      030 020 050 030 040 030
GREER            075/048 072/046 071/047      050 040 050 040 050 040
HEBER            083/053 080/051 079/052      050 040 050 030 050 030
JACOB LAKE       076/051 073/049 072/050      040 030 050 030 050 030
NAVAJO N.M.      088/059 085/058 084/059      030 020 050 030 040 030
PAYSON           091/061 088/061 087/062      040 030 040 030 040 030
SEDONA           096/066 093/066 092/067      040 030 040 030 040 030
SELIGMAN         087/059 084/059 083/060      040 030 050 030 050 030
SHOW LOW         086/059 083/057 082/058      050 040 050 040 050 030
ST. JOHNS        089/059 086/058 085/059      050 040 050 030 050 030
WUPATKI N.M.     094/065 091/064 090/065      030 020 040 030 040 030

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 23, 10:00 AM MST, 2 hours 11 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-240200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES FROM
10 AM MST UNTIL 11 PM MST TODAY...

A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION
TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING
NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF...AND NEAR PRESCOTT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MORE ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA.

STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES WILL
LEAD TO MORE HEAVY RAIN OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED AND FLOODED
AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF YAVAPAI AND
COCONINO COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT.

STRONGER STORMS OUTSIDE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY ALSO LEAD TO
INCREASED FLOW IN WASHES AND DRY CREEK BEDS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES
FOR DAMAGING FLASH FLOODING ARE MUCH LESS.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA. ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAIN...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL SIZES OF AROUND AN INCH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL
OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO
COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT
TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 22, 5:37 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	23 min
Aug 22, 5:39 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	21 min
Aug 23, 11:15 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Aug 23, 12:07 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	23 min
Aug 23, 12:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	18 min
Aug 23, 12:35 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	15 min
Aug 23, 1:09 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	66 min
Aug 23, 1:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	19 min
Aug 23, 1:25 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	65 min
Aug 23, 2:20 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	55 min
Aug 23, 2:30 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Aug 23, 3:03 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	27 min
Aug 23, 4:22 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	53 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.