Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003
Flash Flood Warning 15, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Aug 23, 2003, 1:09 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 66 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 23, 2003, 1:09 PM MST (20:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 23, 2003, 2:15 PM MST
- In force
- 66 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 8.2 hours before the alert went out and 102 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 220 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -110 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1449 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 16 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS55 KFGZ 232012 FFWFGZ AZC025-232215- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 109 PM MST SAT AUG 23 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FLAGSTAFF HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA * UNTIL 315 PM MST * AT 100 PM MST...SPOTTERS REPORTED A FLOODING IN CREEKS ALONG THUMB BUTTE ROAD WEST OF PRESCOTT. HEAVY RAIN HAS ALSO FALLEN IN THE IRON SPRINGS AREA. THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN WAS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...ROADS AND ROADSIDE CULVERTS. THE HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND. TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN FLAGSTAFF. LAT...LON 3449 11262 3454 11248 3473 11257 3467 11265 $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 23, 9:45 AM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 23, 9:45 AM MST, 3 hours 24 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
945 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2003
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTHEAST OF ARIZONA WILL
CONTINUE TO CIRCULATE MOISTURE OVER THE NORTHERN ARIZONA. AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND...AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
.DISCUSSION...VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS CONVECTION...AND A HUGE EVENING
COMPLEX IN NORTHERN SONORA. MOISTURE DISTRIBUTION MORE HOMOGENEOUS
THAN FRIDAY...THE EASTERN ZONES HAVE MOISTENED UP CONSIDERABLY.
ONLY FEATURE TO KEY IN ON IS ONE LAST S/WV EJECTING THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN. MINOR JET STREAK ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LEAVES CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA IN MODEST DIVERGENCE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTION. DUE TO THE RAINFALL EVENTS FROM FRIDAY...WE WILL ISSUE
ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES TODAY
THROUGH THIS EVENING. MOISTURE REMAINS SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE
POSSIBLE AID OF AN EASTERLY WAVE NEAR THE BIG BEND. HIGH POPS WILL
CONTINUE. PETERSON.
.FGZ...FFA YAVAPAI/COCONINO COUNTIES 10 AM MST UNTIL 11 PM MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON SUN MON TDY TON SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 078/051 075/049 074/050 040 030 050 030 050 030
WINSLOW 092/064 089/063 088/064 040 030 040 020 040 020
PRESCOTT 084/060 081/060 080/061 040 030 050 030 050 030
PAGE 094/067 091/066 090/067 020 010 030 020 030 020
WINDOW ROCK 086/054 083/053 082/054 040 030 050 030 040 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 090/062 087/061 086/062 040 030 050 030 040 030
COTTONWOOD 098/068 095/068 094/069 030 020 030 020 040 030
GRAND CANYON 082/051 079/049 078/050 030 020 050 030 040 030
GREER 075/048 072/046 071/047 050 040 050 040 050 040
HEBER 083/053 080/051 079/052 050 040 050 030 050 030
JACOB LAKE 076/051 073/049 072/050 040 030 050 030 050 030
NAVAJO N.M. 088/059 085/058 084/059 030 020 050 030 040 030
PAYSON 091/061 088/061 087/062 040 030 040 030 040 030
SEDONA 096/066 093/066 092/067 040 030 040 030 040 030
SELIGMAN 087/059 084/059 083/060 040 030 050 030 050 030
SHOW LOW 086/059 083/057 082/058 050 040 050 040 050 030
ST. JOHNS 089/059 086/058 085/059 050 040 050 030 050 030
WUPATKI N.M. 094/065 091/064 090/065 030 020 040 030 040 030Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 23, 10:00 AM MST, 3 hours 9 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-240200- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1000 AM MST SAT AUG 23 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES FROM 10 AM MST UNTIL 11 PM MST TODAY... A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS EXISTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED THIS MORNING NORTH OF FLAGSTAFF...AND NEAR PRESCOTT. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY OVER PORTIONS OF COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. MORE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. STRONG STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES WILL LEAD TO MORE HEAVY RAIN OVER PREVIOUSLY SATURATED AND FLOODED AREAS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES THROUGH 11 PM MST TONIGHT. STRONGER STORMS OUTSIDE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREA MAY ALSO LEAD TO INCREASED FLOW IN WASHES AND DRY CREEK BEDS. HOWEVER...THE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING FLASH FLOODING ARE MUCH LESS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TODAY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. ASIDE FROM HEAVY RAIN...THESE STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL SIZES OF AROUND AN INCH. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER ARIZONA RESULTING IN A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE WEEKEND WILL REMAIN MODERATE OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES. DEFINITION OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER...A WEATHER EVENT POSING A THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 22, 5:37 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 23 min |
| Aug 22, 5:39 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 21 min |
| Aug 23, 11:15 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Aug 23, 12:07 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 23 min |
| Aug 23, 12:11 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 64 min |
| Aug 23, 12:32 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 18 min |
| Aug 23, 12:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 15 min |
| Aug 23, 1:11 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 19 min |
| Aug 23, 1:25 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 65 min |
| Aug 23, 2:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 55 min |
| Aug 23, 2:30 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Aug 23, 3:03 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 27 min |
| Aug 23, 4:22 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 53 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003Every flash flood warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.