Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 2, 2003Becker County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2003, 4:57 PM CDT for Becker County, Minnesota. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2003, 4:57 PM CDT (21:57 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2003, 5:45 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Becker County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 149 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:59 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 11:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 10.0 hours before the alert went out and 264 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 774 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 740 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

143 
WUUS53 KFGF 022157
SVRFGF
MNC005-022245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
456 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  SOUTH CENTRAL BECKER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 545 PM CDT.

* AT 454 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DETROIT LAKES...MOVEMENT
  WAS TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  ROCHERT AT 500 PM...
  FRAZEE AT 500 PM...
  EVERGREEN AT 525 PM AND
  SNELLMAN AT 530 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4683 9590 4673 9592 4673 9529 4690 9530

$$

DTR/06

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 2:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:20 PM CDT, 2 hours 37 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS EARLY CONVECTIVE THREAT
AND TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES NEXT 18 HOURS WITH FROPA OTHERWISE MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. WILL
MAINTAIN EVENING MENTION WESTERN AREAS BASED ON LDS HITS OVER
CENTRAL ND. FARTHER EAST WILL CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT WITH HEAVY RAIN
INTO EVENING. RUC MAINTAINS HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER ALL BUT FAR NW MOST
OF NIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL AGAIN SEE MILD MINIMUMS.

FOR THURSDAY MAIN BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST OF FA IN EARLY AM. BOTH
ETA/GFS SWINGING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX AND
PAINTING QPF ACROSS FA. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES NOT IMPRESSIVE
AND REGION DOES NOT SEEM IN FAVORABLE POSITION WITH JET ORIENTATION.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AS A RESULT OF CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL ALL THAT MUCH SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABOVE
AVERAGE DAY TEMP WISE.

COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY HOWEVER PLENTY
OF SOLAR EXPECTED. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL
FOLLLOW.

SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS NEXT WAVE OVER
PAC NW APPROACHES. WITH BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY PCPN INTO THE REGION DURING DAY SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

.EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW EARLY ON TRANSITIONS TO A SLIGHT BUILDING
RIDGE BY LATE. STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX DROPS THRU THE FLOW ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THIS ALREADY
MENTIONED IN ZONES. CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BEST NORTH OF THE
BORDER INTO TUE...BUT WITH HIGH BUILDING IN WILL KEEP REST OF
FORECAST DRY. GFS PAINTING OUT SOME WARM FRONTAL PCPN LATE WED BUT
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EARLY THEN WARM A BIT
LATE.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER/GODON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:35 AM CDT, 10 hours 22 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. DUE TO THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (LARGE BOW ECHO) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR ALONG A DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY LINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOM ON
TO CLOSE OUT THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:15 PM CDT, 2 hours 42 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
215 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   PEMBINA                        3 TO 4 INCH TREE BRANCHES
                                          DOWN.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:57 PM CDT, 2 hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
257 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0120 PM    HALLOCK                   MN   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   KITTSON                        5 TO 6 INCH DIAMETER TREES
                                          DOWN.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 3:23 PM CDT, 1 hour 34 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
323 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0319 PM    BAGLEY                    MN   .75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03   CLEARWATER

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 3:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 18 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
339 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0335 PM    BEMIDJI                   MN   58 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   BELTRAMI                       REPORTED BY AWOS.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 3:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
346 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    BEMIDJI                   MN   .88 INCH HAIL
07/02/03   BELTRAMI                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 4:44 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
444 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1130 AM    6 SE STARKWEATHER         ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   RAMSEY                         12 TO 15 INCH DIAMETER
                                          TREES UPROOTED.REPORTED BY
                                          CO-OP OBSERVER.

WJB

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 1:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Polk	45 min
Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	43 min
Jul 2, 1:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Roseau	44 min
Jul 2, 2:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	47 min
Jul 2, 2:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Norman	38 min
Jul 2, 2:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods, Roseau	61 min
Jul 2, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard	59 min
Jul 2, 3:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	51 min
Jul 2, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard	45 min
Jul 2, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Hubbard	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.