Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 91, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 2, 2003Norman County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2003, 2:22 PM CDT for Norman County, Minnesota. It was in force for 38 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 2, 2003, 2:22 PM CDT (19:22 UTC)
Expired: Jul 2, 2003, 3:00 PM CDT
In force: 38 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Norman County, MN

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:24 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jul 2, 11:20 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 276 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 774 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -221 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 740 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 182 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.8

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

956 
WUUS53 KFGF 021922
SVRFGF
MNC107-022000-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
222 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT.

* AT 219 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES WEST OF LOCKHART...OR ABOUT 35 MILES
  NORTH OF FARGO...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  HADLER AT 235 PM...
  LOCKHART AT 240 PM AND
  FLAMING AT 300 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4748 9683 4718 9680 4717 9610 4748 9609

$$

55

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 2:20 PM CDT, 2 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:20 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
220 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS EARLY CONVECTIVE THREAT
AND TEMPERATURES.

SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES NEXT 18 HOURS WITH FROPA OTHERWISE MODELS
IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT.

CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. WILL
MAINTAIN EVENING MENTION WESTERN AREAS BASED ON LDS HITS OVER
CENTRAL ND. FARTHER EAST WILL CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT WITH HEAVY RAIN
INTO EVENING. RUC MAINTAINS HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER ALL BUT FAR NW MOST
OF NIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL AGAIN SEE MILD MINIMUMS.

FOR THURSDAY MAIN BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST OF FA IN EARLY AM. BOTH
ETA/GFS SWINGING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX AND
PAINTING QPF ACROSS FA. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH
SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES NOT IMPRESSIVE
AND REGION DOES NOT SEEM IN FAVORABLE POSITION WITH JET ORIENTATION.
HOWEVER...CONSIDERING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...UNSTABLE AIRMASS
AND POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AS A RESULT OF CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION. 850MB
TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL ALL THAT MUCH SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABOVE
AVERAGE DAY TEMP WISE.

COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN TIME FOR
INDEPENDENCE DAY. COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY HOWEVER PLENTY
OF SOLAR EXPECTED. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL
FOLLLOW.

SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS NEXT WAVE OVER
PAC NW APPROACHES. WITH BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS WOULD NOT
EXPECT ANY PCPN INTO THE REGION DURING DAY SO WILL LEAVE DRY.

.EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW EARLY ON TRANSITIONS TO A SLIGHT BUILDING
RIDGE BY LATE. STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX DROPS THRU THE FLOW ON SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THIS ALREADY
MENTIONED IN ZONES. CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BEST NORTH OF THE
BORDER INTO TUE...BUT WITH HIGH BUILDING IN WILL KEEP REST OF
FORECAST DRY. GFS PAINTING OUT SOME WARM FRONTAL PCPN LATE WED BUT
PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EARLY THEN WARM A BIT
LATE.

.FGF...NONE.

VOELKER/GODON

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:35 AM CDT, 7 hours 47 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021415-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK
   ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. DUE TO THE EXTREME
INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (LARGE BOW ECHO) CANNOT
BE RULED OUT. EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO
OCCUR ALONG A DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY LINE BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON AND THEN WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOM ON
TO CLOSE OUT THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

BERG

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 2, 1:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
121 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1216 PM    DAHLEN                    ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   NELSON                         LARGE 4 TO 6 INCH TREE
                                          BRANCHES DOWN. REPORTED BY
                                          TRAINED SPOTTER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT, 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
132 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1255 PM    9 NNW GRAFTON             ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   WALSH                          SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF.
                                          REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 1:37 PM CDT, 45 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
137 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0110 PM    DONALDSON                 MN   61 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03   KITTSON                        REPORTED BY RWIS
                                          OBSERVATION.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:06 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
206 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0157 PM    MERRIFIELD                ND   E65 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03    ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0159 PM    GRAND FORKS               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03   GRAND FORKS                    REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:07 PM CDT, 15 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0157 PM    MERRIFIELD                ND   E65 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03                                  ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS.
                                          REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

0159 PM    GRAND FORKS               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03   GRAND FORKS                    REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Jul 2, 2:15 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
215 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0115 PM    PEMBINA                   ND   WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03   PEMBINA                        3 TO 4 INCH TREE BRANCHES
                                          DOWN.

DPORTER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 2, 1:00 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Marshall, Polk	45 min
Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	43 min
Jul 2, 1:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson, Roseau	44 min
Jul 2, 2:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pennington, Polk, Red Lake	47 min
Jul 2, 2:29 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Lake of the Woods, Roseau	61 min
Jul 2, 3:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard	59 min
Jul 2, 3:39 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	51 min
Jul 2, 4:15 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Hubbard	45 min
Jul 2, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker	48 min
Jul 2, 5:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Becker, Hubbard	61 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.